Monday, February 9, 2015

Comfortably Corrupt

Any talk of the lesser evil being also bad is considered unrealistic, bookish and misplaced idealism

A degree is a degree, whether fake or original. This classic quote by one of our top leaders best defines how corruption is viewed in our society. The definition of what being honest, right or lawful is has undergone a tremendous change in the last few decades where it has become difficult to classify people as being respectably wrong or wrongly respectable. The general understanding is that any transaction in which a tangible and provable financial coup is made by an individual or organisation is what gets classified as corruption. That is why tags like Mr 10 percent are so easy to understand and become a standard to be compared to others. Such obvious corruption unfortunately only forms one percent of the massive wrongdoings that have beset the world today. In Pakistan, the ability to get away even with murder has mostly been considered political acumen, strategic maturity and conniving intelligence. What is more disturbing is that many of the acts that are equal to corruption and may cause much more financial or legal damage are now no longer a matter of debate as they are not considered unlawful. Not paying taxes, getting loans written off, ruining institutions by appointing unfit people and taking advantage of your position or office are all normal, everyday routines that are acceptable to the public in general.

Human beings are creatures of habit and the human mind gets used to most with the passage of time. Over a period of time, the belief system of our society has changed by seeing so much happening in an unprincipled manner yet nobody being able to do anything about it. Most people do a mental withdrawal and accept it as an inevitable part of living in a country that they have long ago given up upon. When a society starts assessing things on what is the degree of wrongness rather than on what is the degree of rightness then it will keep on lowering its threshold of tolerance and adopt the lesser evil attitude. Any talk of the lesser evil being also bad is considered unrealistic, bookish and misplaced idealism. Such a belief system manifests itself in frustration and random cynicism where it is easy to mock and dismiss any attempt at fighting for what is right. Such talk is categorised as immature insanity. This creates spiritual bankruptcy, causing people to go through the motions of living without really fighting and striving for better.
Even the most factual science theory states that the mind dictates actions to the body. Thus, the inaction that we see in many suppressed countries is due to the mental subjugation to this belief that we can only get worse. This is precisely what Pakistan is going through. People in positions of power are now accepted as being corrupt and incorrigible, and the scandal and scam tolerance level associated with them is almost unlimited. Though financial scams are the ones that take the eye, it is positional abuse that takes the cake. For example, the last government had this huge scandal associated with the prime minister of rental power plants being commissioned at almost Rs 200 billion. This case became a symbol of big leaders and big scams. In comparison, the present government has always claimed that it has done no corruption. However, the financial decay caused due to breaking laws and the Constitution, and appointing people of no merit is much more devastating financially than the figure stated above.

Consider this: in 2013, the financial year’s circular debt retirement amounted to Rs 480 billion. A large amount to pay this off was procured by printing money that caused inflation to jump and billions of rupees to lose value, sending millions below the poverty line of living on less than two dollars a day. Also, there is a constitutional requirement of doing a pre-audit before sanctioning it, which was not adhered to and thus the allocation was made to the IPPs on the whims and fancies of the minister of finance, who has been asked to do a transparent audit and explain where the money went but, to date, no audit is forthcoming. This has resulted in circular debt rearing its ugly head again, now crossing Rs 300 billion. To make up for this paid yet not paid circular debt, the government overbilled consumers to the amount of Rs 70 billion and then put surcharges and taxes on consumers again, without getting them through parliament, worth Rs 300 billion. With simple math in just one area, this amounts to Rs 850 billion. This figure is more than three times the rental power scandal but has not been perceived so because it is being packaged as being emergency measures to overcome the crisis; the explanation given by the finance minister is that if a few deviations are being made it is at best just being legally illegal or illegally legal. This creates enough complication and confusion for the ordinary masses. They keep on giving the benefit of the doubt to the government as they cannot assign a solid, big, quantitative chunk being taken as commission on a notorious project. Add the cost of hiring incompetent cronies and paying them phenomenal salaries plus the many cronies that they in turn hire that bleed the organisation to death.
The Pakistan State Oil (PSO) head, who was finally axed, had in 18 months earned a salary of over Rs five million per month that amounted in just cash terms to Rs 90 million. If a rough calculation is made of such appointments and the salaries given to them, it will easily surpass the Rs 200 billion that gave such shocks to the public when the rental power plants were brought to court. Take any institution, be it the police, electricity, public enterprises, gas, oil, etc, and we will find such invisible yet invasive corruption going on routinely. This is known as viral corruption; it is all around us but its bacteria is not identifiable and catchable, yet the damage to the system is lethal.
We all rue the obvious losses of robbery, embezzlements and bomb blasts, etc, but the real loss is losing the sense of loss. It is amazing how indifferent we have become to the news of 10 or 15 people dying daily on roads and in blasts; we fleetingly feel sorry but then move on. It has to be a number like the 140 children at the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar to move us to emergency action. Similarly, corruption of a few billions is taken for granted and is acceptable; it takes a scandal of hundreds of billions of rupees in one go to come to the fore to make us aghast and undertake some action. This is what we call being comfortably numb and it is this state of mind in a society that encourages wrong to become right.

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Monday, February 2, 2015

Out Of Global Context

Considering that the US is a major strategic partner in trade and the war on terror it is amazing how little vision we have of evaluating whether it is a true partnership or just a tag of convenience for Pakistan to show off to the rest of the world

The World Economic Forum (WEF) holds a meeting every year of all those who matter in business, economics and politics, and debates the direction of the world in the coming year. For 2015, the theme was ‘In the global context’. While 2014 was a tough year with slow growth, outbreaks of Ebola and high costs of energy, 2015 has been predicted as a year of higher growth, a more robust financial sector and lower costs of production due to falling oil prices. The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, China, India) remained outstanding for weathering economic storms better than the EU and US. The Brazil and Chinese governments are now ready to gear up investments locally and globally, and India, after the change in government, is aggressively wooing and pursuing investment from countries all around the globe. Where in this context is Pakistan and how does it need to position itself to overcome the danger of being left out of the global context?

Pakistan has been ideally placed for the last so many years to take advantage of the shifting global interest. Southeast Asian countries have long become mature in terms of growth and market dynamics as well as labour costs. The natural spillover of investment is South Asia. While the rest of the world is growing at hardly 3.5 percent, South Asia is growing at six percent with countries like India and Bangladesh projected to grow seven percent plus in the coming few years. This makes them an automatic choice for investors around the world. However, in this set of choices Pakistan is not in the consideration box of the big players of the world. Foreign investment in Pakistan in the last few years has trickled to insignificance and exports have stagnated at $ 25 billion, which is not really reflective of the potential of this country. A typical example is the usage of GSP Plus status that was awarded by the EU to Pakistan. GSP Plus reduced significantly the duties imposed by EU countries on Pakistani products. This was supposed to bolster the extremely low level of exports by at least 15 percent and add at least $ 1.5 billion to our export receipts. However, the exporters have lamented the lack of availability of gas and electricity and cost escalation as major reasons behind why this opportunity has gone abegging.
This raises the major question of the search for an investment and trade policy that shows the way forward. In the absence of the way forward, there is only one way to go and that is backwards. Considering that the US is a major strategic partner in trade and the war on terror it is amazing how little vision we have of evaluating whether it is a true partnership or just a tag of convenience for Pakistan to show off to the rest of the world or for the US to use as a ploy to make India tentative. While the global context is clearly stating that economies, societies and issues are going to demand more equal treatment to maintain the status of a reasonable player in the world, Pakistan is ensuring exclusion and isolation by marketing itself as a state that can only help itself get back into bygone eras rather than be part of the great opportunity that is coming the way of being in a region that is naturally an heir to the world investment throne.

What is the understanding of a “global context” in terms of our present government? If it means the Prime Minister (PM), with his near and dear, going on foreign tours and making breaking news by being seen with his entourage shaking hands with the who’s who, then Pakistan is heading this global context. With over 20 foreign trips under his belt in almost 18 months he is definitely globetrotting more than any other leader but the question really is what sort of investment these trips have generated. A comparison with the Indian PM is definitely due. Narendra Modi has made about nine trips to foreign countries and has made each trip with a purpose and profit for his country. His trip to the US was extremely important as he needed to change his image of a man inclined towards the non-liberal right and get Obama interested in the country as a strategic partner in trade and the war against terror. He used the card of common distrust against Pakistan on the war against terror and common interest in rejuvenating the US and Indian economies through trade as a great platform for both countries. President Obama has not only come to India but has announced four billion dollars worth of new initiatives aimed at boosting trade and investment ties as well as jobs in India, and has opened up a whole new source of financing for social development ventures in the country through a new Indian Diaspora Investment Initiative. The four billion dollars deals include two billion dollars of leveraged financing for renewable energy investments in India through the US Trade and Development Agency and one billion dollars in loans for small and medium businesses across India through the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC).

Normally such MoUs are just fancy promises but the seriousness of the commitment was visible when the US president also announced the creation of a high-level US-India strategic and commercial dialogue to monitor progress on the pacts and vision statements laid out by PM Modi and President Obama. The mechanism, he said, would hold the bureaucracies of the two countries accountable for translating the vision of the two leaders into reality.
The sadness of the situation is that not only are we going out of the global context but that we are also going out of the local context. Governor Sarwar’s resignation is symbolic of not just a disagreement on issues but also a disagreement on values. His main reason for resigning was his admission of how overseas Pakistanis, who have invested in land and other areas, feel insecure at the hands of the land mafia who are beyond governance and higher than the law. If diehard overseas Pakistanis feel that their own assets and investments are prone to be taken over by anybody in power or close to power, how can we ever expect foreigners to put a vote of confidence in response to our appeals for Pakistan being part of the next investors shopping destination? Neither is being subservient to the US the solution nor is being anti-US the remedy. What is needed is being pro-Pakistan and protecting the rights and obligations of every citizen living inside and outside this country. What is needed for that is governance independent of the whims and fancies of the government? Without the government being governable themselves, governance will remain an item on the wish list.


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Monday, January 26, 2015

Oily Deal


Major experience means being the yes men of the two brothers and their proven record of covering up for all major goof ups by the government

Breaking news: after electricity and gas, petrol has also been declared an endangered species and thus cannot be used, only talked about or seen, as items to be treasured in a museum as memories of what they used to be once upon a time. Just imagine that when all over the world oil is in oversupply and is being sold at desperately low prices, in Pakistan it has disappeared and is now being bought in bottles of mineral water at prices higher than the oldest wine. It is flabbergasting, mindboggling and baffling until you look at the picture of the Prime Minister’s (PM’s) crisis management committee putting their heads together to solve the mystery of ‘whodunit’. You have a PM with the look of being lost and never found, you have a finance minister with the look of so-what-this-is-just-another-issue and you have a petroleum minister who sulkily says, “Okay, if you insist, so be it.” Investigation takes place and guess what? All are absolved of all crimes except the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) and Pakistan State Oil (PSO). The acting head and the other heads acting on behalf of various ministers are sent rolling to make the PM not look like a complete loser.
The real scandal may surface in a few days or weeks but the scandal already out and proven factually is that the PML-N can write a book on how to destroy institutions. The age-old formula is: just place an incompetent person on top and then see how the incompetence comes roaring down the ranks. The Noon style of management is to highlight all major posts in ministries, bureaucracy, judiciary and media and then appoint people who have not only proven loyalty to the Sharif family but are likely to support and enable all decisions legal or illegal, moral or immoral with blind subservience. The famous experienced team of the government has definitely lived up to its years of knowhow. Major experience means being the yes men of the two brothers and their proven record of covering up for all major goof ups by the government with utmost aplomb and nonchalance. Pervez Rashid is the biggest example of this trait as he, in so many years, has perfected the art of saying with conviction what others would be shy of saying even hesitantly. While he is the government’s information minister, he uses all government platforms to promote party stances as is the case with his frequent press conferences defending Sardar Ayaz Sadiq’s case as this case relates to Sardar Ayaz Sadiq’s election from the Noon League ticket and not as the Speaker of the National Assembly.
When the man at the top sets the tone of appointing people who have an unblemished record of loyalty to him, they in turn will do the same for all posts under them. Such is the reluctance of the government to appoint people who are professionally competent that, despite the fact that the Supreme Court (SC) has withdrawn the commission for selecting heads of state-run enterprises, 22 statutory bodies and 33 public sector companies are still headless or operating on acting appointees. PSO is a classic example of such a company. The acting Managing Director (MD) Amjad Janjua was appointed in October 2013 only for three months till the permanent MD was selected. In August 2014, the establishment division sent a letter to the PM mentioning the irregularities of his appointment. The Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum and Natural Resources found the posting of the incumbent MD of PSO illegal and asked the government to replace him. “The acting managing director PSO, who is very junior and is currently under FIA and NAB investigation, should be removed immediately,” Senator Mohammad Yousaf wrote to the PM and relevant government agencies on behalf of the committee. The Senate committee observed that a person on the exit control list because of investigations by the FIA and National Accountability Bureau should not be allowed to run a company with an annual turnover of more than Rs 1.5 trillion. Instead of removing him, the PM changed the rules to accommodate this rare talent in PSO. This appointment has not only ruined PSO but also the petroleum industry and the government’s own credibility.
Crisis and errors are part of even the most efficient governments. However, the difference between the ones that succeed and those that fail is their ability to learn and not repeat errors. How can we safely say that the petrol crisis or other disasters will not recur if we know that the style of management will not change? The new MD appointed at PSO, Mr Shahid Islam, is another contentious candidate with the mixed record of being at PIA in the past with dubious performance. However, if the previous MD was a crony of the finance minister, the new one is an old friend of the minister of petroleum. When the top man bends rules, so do all others. The frightening cross-functional war between ministries and ranks bodes ill for the future. Just look at the assessment of various ministers on this crisis and there is this oily feeling of a disaster postponed but not thwarted. The PM dismissed the MD and deputy MD of PSO while the petroleum minister insists that PSO was not to be blamed as the unexpected rise in demand of petroleum due to fall in oil prices could not have been forecast. The investigation report blames OGRA while OGRA has blamed the oil marketing companies. Another inexplicable point is: why did the shortage occur in Punjab only while Karachi, with the largest population and the most extensive industrial base, never had this shortage? These unanswered questions increase the risk of such economic disasters being repeated.
For institutions to perform, the mindsets have to reform, for the mindsets to reform, the process has to start from the top, for the process to start from the top, an admission of responsibility for the mess needs to come from the leader, for the leader to make this admission, a high degree of integrity is a prerequisite — the integrity to refuse your near and dear ones appointments of importance and appoint men of merit regardless of their loyalties. For this to happen a culture of accountability is needed where people who have messed up are not just removed from posts but are made to pay each penny wasted of public money and for this to happen, the public and media have to constantly expose and raise their voice on these professional criminal acts being carried out in institutions funded by taxpayers’ money. It may seem a long haul but look at it this way: even one incompetent man changed in one institution may result in savings of billions and jobs and lives of thousands of deserving people.
The writer is an analyst and columnist and can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com


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Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Everyday Violence

If we can make a 21st Constitutional Amendment to bring action on recommendations, why can we not ensure that those that are already in the Constitution are being followed?

 While we are talking about terrorism incidents and the need to curb them on emergency basis, we are unaware of the everyday violence occurring in our country that outnumbers any act of terrorism on any scale. This is particularly disturbing if you compare violence against children and women. Every day, at least 10 children become victims of homicide, meaning that over 3,000 children are lost to this violence, a figure much larger than that of children killed in bomb blasts. A UNICEF report, ‘Hidden in Plain Sight: Statistical Analysis of Violence against Children’, surveys 190 countries, including Pakistan, and surveys boys and girls aged up to 19 years. Pakistan is in the top 10 countries in the world as far as violence against children is concerned. This menace in society goes almost unnoticed as casualties are scattered and rarely get the media spotlight for more than a few days.

While we have taken some emergency steps to curb and eliminate terrorism in the country and the multiple All Parties Conferences (APCs) are being conducted to pacify public outrage, very little is being done to prevent violence that is killing 10 times more children per year than terrorism. When a society becomes increasingly indifferent to what happens to children, it loses its humanity and when it loses its humanity it degrades itself to animal living where the survival of the mightiest becomes the rule of law. Why has society lost its ability to rebel against this everyday violence that we witness going on in our cities and neighborhoods? What are the root causes of this moral and social poison that is conveniently reserved for some awareness seminars and talk shows and not emergency plans of the government? These are the questions that are never repeatedly pondered and debated as they require solutions that do not have an immediate demonstration effect, like forming military courts.

If we can make a 21st Constitutional Amendment to bring action on recommendations, why can we not ensure that those that are already in the Constitution are being followed by the government and, if not, then they are punishable acts. The profile of most of these children who are victims is that they are poor, from large families and have hardly any opportunity to be educated. This combination of poverty and illiteracy is lethal for children belonging to families that produce babies almost every year of their productive life. The real killers are economic and educational deprivation. Consider this: over 25 million children are out of school in this country, making every fourth child out of school in the world a Pakistani. It is shocking and shameful. Consider another statistic: more than 1.5 million children live on the streets and 90 percent of them have been sexually abused. Incidents of child labour rape have been on the rise as nearly every other day a maid working in a house is brutally beaten by either cruel employers or abused by lecherous men.

The ASER report just released presents a picture that says more than words. As mentioned before, over 25 million of five to 16-year-olds are out of school. As with every other development indicator, there is a gender divide: 11.4 million boys and 13.7 million girls are out of school. Moreover, children from lower income families are six times more likely to be out of school than their rich counterparts. In another estimate, 57 percent of all out of school children belong to rural areas. Based on the PSLM survey, the primary net enrollment rate (NER) is 57 percent while for middle and high school levels it falls drastically to 22 percent and 13 percent respectively.

One of the most prominent findings of the report is the survival rate recorded at 48 percent as children drop out of school by the time they reach secondary levels of education. By the age of 16, 55 percent of children in Pakistan are recorded to be out of school. This places Pakistan much lower than all its neighbors in the region.

The root cause of most social evils stems from a sense of deprivation, whether it is economic, emotional or intellectual. Children on the street, being used for begging or due to lack of space and care in poor families with a huge number of dependents, are sitting ducks for exploitation. Whether it was the 3-year-old toddler found dead near a mosque or the five-year-old girl raped last year, the demographics were similar. Both had 10 siblings of all ages and were living in two room shelters or houses and thus their everyday abode was the street. With so many children, for the mother to keep track of their whereabouts for any decent length of time is almost impossible. Why do we say “population explosion”? Because this is a major cause of violence escalation. A large population itself is not the end of the world but a large, uneducated, unemployed and unaware population is a ticking time bomb in every sense of the word. When human beings are herded together like animals and not given basic rights, they will, in majority, become animals. A famished, neglected and abused child is the best fuel for terrorist nourishment and the ideal justification for a reproduction of any violence in society.

If every research proves that lack of education and economic subsistence produces an imbalanced society that breeds frustration, rage and violence, why are these factors not given the same importance as emergency actions against terrorism? Why are people who are responsible for providing education not doing so and, despite violating the Constitution, are not being punished for it? Why are there no political and civil society protests against the deprivation of this right? If the law does not provide any special penalty for this omission why are there no amendments being done to make this as unlawful as any other severe criminal act? Why are there no special courts being made to accommodate to try out people responsible for failing to provide what is truly the most important element to prevent and uproot terrorism?

It is the air crash phenomenon. Though deaths by road accidents are multiple times more than deaths due to air crashes, the importance given to measures to reduce air crashes is much more than road safety. The quantity of deaths in one go catches the media and mind’s imagination much more than everyday road deaths. Similarly, the abuses going on in our neighbourhoods are simply too frequent and less dramatic to deserve media, political and civil society attention. However, it is this everyday violence that eventually leads to terrorism on all levels. If there is no war against illiteracy, no war against poverty and no war against inequity, the war against terrorism will continue to be a battle unconquered.

The writer is an analyst and columnist and can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com


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Wednesday, January 14, 2015