‘Panama Spring’

In countries where monarchies, closed governments and counterfeit democracies exist, scams on the rich and powerful fade into insignificance over a period of time

fter the Arab Spring came the ‘Panama Spring’. The Arab Spring came, shocked, whimpered and faded. The present Panama Spring is being termed as another seasonal wind that will ‘appear’ to be creating a storm but will turn into a lull before the summer takes on. The premise behind this cynicism is that both are targeted towards the rich and the powerful who may lose a few billions but will create new power fortresses to prevent any further disturbance. The excitement that was created with the Arab Spring and the romance that was conjured up by the oppressed against the mighty is not really present in this shake-up. However, as with every fairy tale, reality bites, and the Arab Spring sprung no major surprises; Panama Spring despite being the boring accountants, tedious, number-crunching leakage may yet create enough material for Hollywood to make many movies on this gigantic paper chase.

The Arab Spring was a revolt of the suppressed public against oppression, and Panama Spring is a revolt of the honest against corruption. Arab Spring started in Tunisia in 2010 when the self-immolation of a street vendor in a provincial town of Sidi Bouzid sparked mass anti-government protests. Unable to control the crowds, the then president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee the country in January 2011 after 23 years in power. Over the next few months, Ben Ali’s downfall inspired similar uprisings across the Middle East. The story of Arab Spring reached its height in Egypt when the Tahrir Square became a historical place to witness the power of the people in dislodging unwanted governments. While Hosni Mubarak succumbed to the pressure, the political structure was too weak to let the democratic government last, giving way to the army to run the country. Libya and Muammar Qaddafi went into a bloody war, despite Qaddafi’s death Libya remained a land in the grip of a civil war. Aside from these big falls, some other countries were also affected by the shake-up but that only resulted in partial public appeasement in the form of some benefits and reforms. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Qatar also faced sporadic protests but managed to control the population with carrot-and-stick options.

Panama Spring is similar yet different from the Arab Spring. It is similar in the fact that it is a revolt against the ruling elite; it is similar in the fact that public protests and pressure are the trigger points for many governments; and it is similar in the fact that the IT and social media revolution has played a big part in making it spread in many parts of the world. However, it is different in the sense that this is not a regional uprising located in the Middle East but touching nearly every part of the world. From Argentina to Iceland, from the UK to Russia, and from India to Pakistan, the tremors have been felt everywhere. Another difference is that unlike the Arab Spring that was basically a revolt against authoritarian governments suppressing the rights of citizens, this is a revolt against mostly democratic governments not taking into confidence their citizens on private business matters. The Panama leaks are not merely limited to governments but also include businessmen, bureaucrats, judges, media-persons, sportspersons, actors and many other individuals.

The Arab Spring saw the start of the role of social media in informing the world, and the Panama Spring is already showing the power of social media in transforming the world. While in Tunisia the self-immolation of a street vendor inspired a youth to sing a song on freedom that went viral and started a national movement. In Egypt when Mubarak clamped control on the electronic media, it was Wael Ghonim, Google’s marketing executive, whose post “We are all Khalid Mohammad Said” on his Facebook page about the man who was tortured to death by the government who made the uprising turn into
a revolution.

From spring of 2010 to spring of 2016 social media has overtaken media, and is now no longer an alternative but a mainstream vehicle that unlike the electronic media is the voice of the poor as it gives opportunity across classes, countries, age groups and segments to say, show and respond to millions of people within seconds. In the Arab Spring the main tool was Facebook; in the Panama Spring the ability of IT wizards to hack millions of documents and then in a click spread them all over the world through Twitter, Instagram, Snapchats etc is unprecedented. The Panama leaks would have never leaked with such speed, alacrity and scale had the social media not made the world so instant, virtual and global. The Wiki Leaks that shook the world were 1.73 gigabytes, and Panama leaks are 2,000 times bigger with 2.6 terabytes, covering 11.5 million papers. A decade ago, it would have taken warehouses and trucks to compile and transport the data in months to reach major countries. Today, it has just taken a few minutes to reach four corners of the world.

The question then is will the Panama Spring create more waves than the Arab Spring did? The answer is it has already created ripples, but will it really create tectonic shakeups remains to be seen. The ripples it has created are not just due to social media. It has happened because people being exposed in these leaks are from all parts of the world, especially the more developed world. The Iceland prime minister was the first to go as the public of Iceland is educated and knows how to hold leaders accountable. However, the more authoritarian regimes are more reluctant like China and Russia. Pakistan is a case of pretence democracy where all institutions seem to be serving and protecting the prime minister’s office rather than the public, and cries of moral authority are just laughed away. Thus, the ultimate game changer is the public awareness and pressure. Countries where the public is empowered, they exhibit the power to disempower the people in power. In countries where monarchies, closed governments and counterfeit democracies exist, scams on the rich and powerful fade into insignificance over a period of time.

The Arab Spring had a predictable fallout but the Panama Spring is diverse and unpredictable, and in this unpredictability lies the opportunity — the opportunity to create hope in despair and the opportunity to disempower
the powerful.

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A legal robbery

Panama leaks are not just document leaks, they are leaks in trust; they are leaks in transparency

When criminals are in the hiding they should not be pursued. As long as you are not caught you are innocent. Out of geographical boundaries, out of legal boundaries — that is the definition of money stowed away in grey warehouses in foreign lands. The Panama Papers have created sensation everywhere in the world. From Russia to Iceland and from India to Pakistan, there is uproar on hide-the-billions game played at the highest level. Most countries are mortified and are willing to investigate this scandal. Iceland has demanded and achieved the prime minister’s resignation, and India is promising a thorough investigation. In Pakistan, the attitude of the government and the Sharif family is typical: what is the big deal if a few billions have mysteriously found their way in other countries in some offshore and offhand accounts. The outrage at being questioned on a scandal that has rocked the world is really the root cause of why governance and rule of law is merely a matter of lip service in this country.

Having an offshore company is perfectly legal. However, offshore bank accounts and other financial dealings in another country can be used to evade regulatory oversight or tax obligations. Companies or individuals often use shell companies, initially incorporated without significant assets or operations to disguise ownership or other information about the funds involved. Shell companies and other entities can be misused by terrorists and others involved in international and financial crimes to conceal sources of funds and ownership. The ICIJ (International Consortium of Investigative Journalism) states that the files from Mossack Fonseca — the law firm involved in the Panama Papers scandal — include information on 214,488 offshore entities, linked to 14,153 clients, in 200 countries and territories. Among national leaders with offshore wealth are Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Prime Minister; Ayad Allawi, ex-interim prime minister and former vice-president of Iraq; Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine; Alaa Mubarak, son of Egypt’s former president; and the Prime Minister of Iceland, Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson.

While establishing an offshore company is not illegal the purpose for which it is used is what makes it questionable. Majority of these companies are not used for foreign investment in the countries where they are established, like Panama and British Virgin Islands (BVI), but for hiding illegal black money, and then whitening it through some means to create investments in a third country. That is why the whole world is rattled by this scandal, and busy trying to investigate its depth and extent, while in Pakistan the accused are in a denial mode. All sorts of confusion prevails. After denying for years that the prime minister owned billions of rupees of property overseas, finally, Sharif and sons have admitted that they own property in UK. Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s flat denial previously, and a partial acceptance presently is something that is nothing new. What is new is that there are documents present that are direct from the agent the family hired to authenticate the claim that they are shareholders in this deal that they keep on denying.

The real issue is if it is straight money why hide it in a crooked dark alley. Why create a route through another country. Why deny its existence. All these why’s are responsible for the present uproar in the world, and in Pakistan. For example, while Maryam has said that she was just a trustee, the documents show that she is a shareholder. According to the Panama leaks, Nescol Limited and Nielson Holdings Limited were incorporated in the BVI in 1993 and 1994, respectively, and were held by one bearer share each, in the name of Maryam Safdar (Maryam’s married name). In February 2006, Maryam Safdar signed a resolution of the Nescol Limited as the “sole (bearer) shareholder”. Mossack Fonseca was appointed as the registered agent through the Minerva Trust, which described Maryam Safdar as the beneficial owner of both companies.

Aside from the ruling family, almost 200 Pakistanis are implicated in this scandal, which includes businessmen and judges. As is the case with other countries that include the US and UK, investigations and tax law changes are already in the offing. India has already asked for investigation involving top agencies with a deadline of April 25 to find the truth. Iceland Prime minister had to resign as the public protest forced him to give up his position. The reaction of the government in Pakistan has been typically late and lame. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif addressed the nation and narrated a whole story of how every government had targeted his family business, and reduced it to nothing. How he and his family had risen from these knockdowns and became richer than before. More than the content the prime minister’s attitude was the most disturbing part of his speech; here is a scandal that has rocked the world, and here is evidence from an international consortium of 400 journalists that had investigated this scandal. Here IS a case where country after country is forced to take extraordinary steps to deal with the crisis, and here is a prime minister who with a perturbed look on his face, puts the whole blame of these global leaks on local opposing forces conspiring in the country to bring him down. This response just about sums up the extent of understanding of the situation by the man in the top position, and his ability to deal with crisis. Eventually, there was the offer of forming a judicial commission under a retired judge, and asking the opposition to bring evidence and prove the case against him.

Firstly, the prime minister has to realise that this is not a local opposition party pressing charges, and thus a judicial commission would not be presented evidence by them. What is needed is to form an independent and empowered inquisitorial committee acceptable to all parties that uses international financial audit firms, NAB, and FIA to trace the trail of money to uncover any wrongdoing in its declaration, remittance and source. Without proper and thorough investigation, it will be merely another joint investigation team working without success, or produce a commission report like that of the Model Town incident, where despite concrete evidence nobody except the most dispensable were punished.

Even if all the Sharif family is saying is true, imagine the impact of the prime minister’s family setting up an example of tax avoidance to which they have admitted. While the FBR last week preached and celebrated “pay your tax week”, how in the world are they going to convince people to pay taxes when the prime minister is professing to practising tax avoidance? Also in question are the record 42 foreign tours the prime minister has made to invite investment in the country among other things. If billions of rupees of investment is being made by his own family outside Pakistan, imagine how convincing he must be painting Pakistan as an ‘investment haven’. Panama leaks are thus not just document leaks, they are leaks in trust; they are leaks in transparency; they are leaks in accountability; they are leaks in credibility and they are leaks in integrity.

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The die option

It has been known for long that south Punjab is the sanctuary for Punjabi Taliban, and it is from here that a lot of coordination takes place for terror attacks in the country

It is do or die for us. How many times have we heard our leaders make claims that this is a sink or swim for us, that and we will do everything to end perpetrators of terror? Why do we then always end up taking the ‘die option’ and wait for a heartbreaking number of young innocent children and families to die and then take action? Why do we have to keep on thumping on empty rhetoric, express deep concern and wait for the next big explosion to happen? Why do we have to have let intelligence reports become facts to take some steps?

As the anguish pours in at all levels it makes one think of what is being done and what is not being done to let this horror become so enduring. At a national and personal level it has become a mystery, solved but un-dealt with. In the aftermath of this blast replying to many texts and emails asking for my family and my safety, I felt guilty. That I am writing that all is fine with me and my family, while doezens are dying in pain and uncertainty; that as long as the blast is away from us, and the victim-count is below the century mark it is still not as bad as the APS; that while we are trying to do whatever we can we are still not doing much. This feeling of inadequacy, this feeling of unrest and this feeling of déjà vu lingers in us to make us conscious of something we prefer to store in the subconscious under the bravado of what a resilient and brave nation we are. The question being is it resilience or indifference? Is it silence or escapism? These are the deep-rooted questions that we need to ask before we declare ourselves heroes who embrace suffering with courage.

At the national and provincial level we get statistics of how figures of terrorism have gone down dramatically. Examples of Karachi and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are quoted to give substance to the fact that we are on our way to recovery. That is encouraging; but is it enough and is it a constant trend? Not really. While bomb blasts have been reduced by 70 percent due to military operation, the APEX meetings have always expressed disappointments on progress on areas that are necessary to uproot terror: monitoring banned organisations and their emergence with other names and identities, choking terror-financing, police reforms, madrassah reforms, developing counter-narrative etc.

As far as going after banned organisations with new identities is concerned, it has been known for long that south Punjab is the sanctuary for the Punjabi Taliban, and it is from here that a lot of coordination takes place for terror attacks in the country. Muzaffargarh from which the alleged attacker of the Lahore blast hailed from is the capital of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which now operates under the name of Jamaat-ul-Ahraar, a group that has claimed responsibility for the Lahore attack. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is regarded as the most extreme Sunni terror group in Pakistan and is accused of killing hundreds of Shias after its emergence in the early 1990s. The organisation is also said to have had links with al-Qaeda. Malik Ishaq, who was a leader of the feared organisation, was implicated in dozens of cases, mostly murder. Ishaq was also accused of masterminding, from behind bars, the 2009 attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, which wounded seven players and an assistant coach, and killed eight Pakistanis. His pictures with Rana Sanaullah were a frequent item in social media. Malik Ishaq and his two sons were finally killed in July 2015 in a police encounter. Shuja Khanzada’s killing was also linked with the group’s retaliation to his death.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) track record of denials and then reluctant admission creates a very uneasy reading. Sanaullah who has denied the existence of terrorists in Punjab was quoted in an interview in 2014 for The Guardian admitting that there were 174 terrorist dens in Punjab. His relationship with Maulana Ahmad Ludhianvi, the head of the banned outfit, Sipah-e-Shabah, has been extensively reported in media where he is the chief negotiator for seat-adjustments in these constituencies. The recent pressure on the PML-N by the Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to carry out operations in Punjab has produced contradictory responses. The main difference between the army and government is whether to employ Rangers or the Elite force of the Counter Terrorism Department of the Punjab government.

This selective and as-and-when operation response enables big groups to develop smaller splinter groups and spread out to make it difficult to be apprehended. According to some sources, there are scores of terror dens that function in Rahim Yar Khan, Rajanpur and Muzaffargarh with assurance from the Punjab government that if they stay off Punjab, the government will stay off them. All this could be just an exaggeration but the current blast in Lahore and the consequent response of the army and the government has given substance to these assumptions. The operation plan was announced by the DG ISPR in a tweet after a meeting with the top army brass. Sanaullah had a separate press conference in which he denied the existence of organised terror dens and said counterterrorism forces were already eliminating terrorists. The prime minister, in a televised address to the nation, made no mention at all of the operation or the alleged RAW agent caught by the intelligence agencies. The joint press conference by the DG ISPR and Pervez Rasheed almost confirmed the unease that the government and army have vis-à-vis the Punjab operation and raising hue and cry on the RAW agent.

The APS incident raised hope that a united Pakistan would be able to nail down terrorism and these hopes have been partially fulfilled as terrorism has declined. However, the most disturbing part is the speculation that government and army have differences on operations in Punjab to make the National Action Plan more effective. This divide is what terrorists have and will exploit to take refuge in their many secure dens that exist in parts of Punjab. Without the unity that followed the APS tragedy, Lahore and many parts of Pakistan will remain vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Terrorists will keep on sneaking through the crevices that exist in government’s resolve to take on sanctuaries in no-go areas hindering the ‘do’ option in favour of the die option.

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