Ego boomerang

All parties are constantly taking refuge in being the saviours of democracy and condemning the army and Rangers' interference as non-democratic. On the other hand, their open threats to institutions are anything but democratic

What goes around comes around. This law of nature is quoted frequently but followed infrequently. The tendency of human nature to selectively use these laws is the first proof of how interpretation of most such clichés are conveniently reserved for others and how for most leaders power, position and resources are synonymous with being beyond reproach. The recent hysteria by the government is almost a carbon copy of the outraged response of the PPP a few months ago. In fact, it is a predictable chain reaction where loud claims of sanctity of institutions and law enforcers are vociferously demanded, requested and then pushed back as soon as their demands are directed towards the ones who demanded. It started with the MQM and their constant SOS for army interference and operations in Karachi. Finally, when the Rangers began the operations and hundreds of MQM people were arrested it turned into a tirade of warnings and threats by their leadership to lay off them. All this while the PPP supported the Rangers’ operation and commended the visible difference in the law and order situation. The MQM’ s main line of defence was that since the PPP was not being targeted it was a discriminatory operation.

The PPP, on the other hand, did not find the operation either discriminatory or the Rangers going beyond their jurisdiction till the Dr Asim saga unfolded. Then, as Altaf Hussain had threatened the army, Asif Zardari came out in full force. He screamed and hurled threats at the Rangers and army, and warned them of dire consequences. Regardless of this outrage, the near and dear ones of Mr Zardari were targeted for abusing their offices to create an easy environment for terrorists. As a result, Mr Zardari flew out to Dubai and is now following Altaf Hussain’s footsteps to decree judgment on Pakistani politics from long distance. Ironically, the MQM that was so upset with the Rangers for targeting them now has become a supporter for extending the authority of Rangers. The PPP in turn is now howling about how Punjab has not come under the noose of these operations and why it is being targeted.

Finally, the ball enters Punjab’s court as the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) tries to dig up the buried hatchet on the decades’ old cases against the main leaders of the PML-N. Thus, it is the PML-N’s turn to balk. However, it has a twofold problem. Unlike the MQM and PPP, it cannot claim that it is being targeted and discriminated against as other parties are also undergoing this treatment, and, secondly, it cannot scream murder at the armed forces as its relationship with them is already under scrutiny. What are they left with except to beat down NAB and try to scare the daylights out of it by warning it not to take on the very people who appointed them to this job? That is what their style of government is and that is why governance is almost non-existent. Outrage expressed by each leader, be it Altaf Hussain, Asif Zardari or Nawaz Sharif, at being questioned on any wrongdoing of theirs or their workers or near ones is an example of how set their minds are on their ultimate power to decide for themselves and others.

The sad casualty of this attitude is the dubious perception about democracy in the country. All parties are constantly taking refuge in being the saviours of democracy and condemning the army and Rangers’ interference as non-democratic. On the other hand, their open threats to institutions are anything but democratic. More evidence to their autocratic attitude is in the current Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) survey about democratic norms in the political parties. It is not a coincidence that the least democratic parties are the PMLN, PPP and MQM. The PML-N is the lowest in the rank with a 31 percent score and the PPP is hardly better at 36 percent. It is but natural that if these parties do not practice democracy within their ranks how can they be expected to practice democracy within the country?

The recent uproar about NAB’s undue interference in the working of the government is intriguing to say the least. The Prime Minister (PM), the Chief Minister (CM), the information minister and the home minister all have come out with severe warnings to NAB. This tirade is very similar to the tirade by the MQM and PPP against the army but for the PPP focus is on NAB. However, it is evident that their own chosen man, NAB’s head, has dared to go against their wishes because perhaps there is a more powerful force asking them to do their job, which they had not done in the last few years. The PM led this threat attack by warning “I have brought the matter to the notice of the NAB chairman a couple of times. He should take notice. Otherwise, the government will take legal action in this regard.” As the Orange Train Project has come under scrutiny, the CM Punjab also issued a warning to NAB: “The government desires effective accountability procedure, however, it will not allow any department to influence projects having national importance.”

The egos of the high and mighty are going through a boomerang cycle. With this autocratic mindset it is difficult for them to accept disobedience. Their tested tried formula of threatening or buying subservience is not too effective at the present juncture. The PPP tried threatening the army and the general into warding off Dr Asim’s case but that did not work. In recent times, Asif Zardari has become all praise for the same general and has supported an extension of his term. Similarly, the PML-N first tried to offer the same lure to the general who firmly refuted the rumour by dismissing this option. It was only after the failure of offering posts to ward off opposition that the PML-N had no option but to go full throttle after NAB.

When ego trips are based on power and position any lessening of these two creates high insecurities and desperation. However, too many egos create an ego war where everyone gets hit and hurt. The present fall-out between the PPP and PML-N may prove mutually damaging and that is why, if they need to survive, they will have to start ‘acting’ like the saviours of democracy against anti-democratic forces. However, their present dilemma is that if the general is not even interested in an extension whom to make the anti-democratic villain? That is why the present daggers drawn situation between the two parties has reached a temporary impasse. Whether this remains a permanent or temporary state depends on how all encompassing and non-discriminatory the present drive of accountability turns out to be.

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The price of not knowing

Even when documents are presented to NAB or the court they mysteriously disappear from record and the likes of Mr Asif Ali Zardari are honourably exempted of all charges

Make it so technical and complex that even those few who know cannot know. That is the essence of creating non-transparent transparency. Mega projects are being signed with many countries involving mega money and questions are being raised on price, process and management. The answers are so technically opaque that neither parliament nor the public are able to either accept them or reject them. More confusion ensues, the media finds it too chaotic to continue with these discussions and shifts its focus to the next breaking news. The curious cases of the LNG deal with Qatar, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) routes, the orange train line with China and the metro bus with Turkey are examples of how, despite all the controversies, nothing concrete has come out of them in terms of knowing where all the money has come from and where it is going.

Gas shortage has plagued the country as badly in winter as load shedding does in the summers. Pakistan definitely needs solutions for this as the public and industry have suffered badly. Taxes like gas infrastructure development cess have been imposed on industry with crippling effect on its competitiveness. In these circumstances, the LNG deal with Qatar may be a solution to better the supply of gas at lower prices. The problem, however, is that ‘may be’ is just as good as giving the benefit of the doubt to Donald Trump for coming up with a sensible punch line. There is hue and cry by the opposition that all these deals are bypassing parliament and even when they are brought into debate the response of the relevant ministries is not satisfactory. The opposition on the other hand does not have concrete evidence to really make a solid case of it, which can penetrate through a judicial system that is extremely reluctant to take tough decisions in these contentious matters.

The perception of corruption in projects is easily understood when the deal is accompanied by obvious payoffs to the beneficiaries. Cotecna and SGS cases during the PPP regime became famous when a clear percentage six to 10 percent were supposed to be deposited in Swiss accounts belonging to Asif Zardari. However, as there are many ways to skin the cat there are many ways to skin bribes and payoffs. Bending and overlooking Pubic Procurement and Regulatory Authority (PPRA) rules of procurement is one of the main ways of awarding contracts to people you want to award contracts to. In the Nandipur project case, competitive bidding was not done and the project was awarded to a company that had been blacklisted due to its earlier failures. The other big source of corruption is the awarding of equipment and services’ contracts. As these services are technical in nature, tenders are deliberately made with specifications only the favourites can comply with, delivery dates are tailored to suit only certain suppliers and bid prices are shared with those whom they want to qualify as the lowest bidders. This is systemic and technical corruption that is very difficult to understand, catch and prove. In all audits conducted at Nandipur it was proven that the wrong plant size was ordered, the wrong fuel was used and the wrong man was appointed as the head of this project. However, all this is put under the heading of incompetence and is forgiven and forgotten.

The mega LNG deal has so many layers of operation that it will be very difficult to wade through this maze of buying, transporting and distributing gas to identify multiple avenues of payoffs. However, even in this present status, experts have rejected the government’s claims. First of all, the minister for petroleum and natural resources has claimed that at six dollars MMBTU (one million British thermal units) it is the cheapest in the world. It is not. Gas prices, as is the case in oil, have tumbled in the last few years. Russsia is selling it in Eurorpe for $ 3.3 and in the US it is sold at two dollars. At this price electricity will cost six ripees per unit. But the biggest hide-and-not-tell that the minister is doing is revealing that it is a pay-as-you-take 15-year bound agreement. This means that when the oil price will be $ 100 per barrel, which it will be in a few years, we will be bound to buy at $ 15 per MMBTU and the cost of an electricity unit will be as high as Rs 22. Why we did not buy it from Iran at three dollars is also an enigma. Also, how do you prove that Saifur Rehman was there in Qatar as a friend of Nawaz Sharif and was not the deal broker just as Mr Jindal of India is around the prime minister whenever there is a meeting between the Indian and Pakistani counterparts? However, the inexplicable appearances of these close friends during such important governmental business have always been exposed in the media, questioned by experts but concrete traceable evidence has never come forward. Even when documents are presented to the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) or the court they mysteriously disappear from record and the likes of Mr Asif Ali Zardari are honourably exempted of all charges.

Not revealing may help in letting people grope about in the dark but creates other problems that are reflected in the shape of more protests, more conflicts, more mismanagement and more blood on hands. PIA privatisation and the recent flare up between the PPP and PML-N in Azad Kashmir are frightening manifestations of this frustration ready to explode. The CPEC has not even started and bitterness has reached high levels. While the prime minister has said the original route is intact the Chinese ambassador in his meeting with the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa said that he was not aware of the existence of a western route. Let us hope this is just ignorance on his part rather than actual reality.

The best way to create controversy is to be non-inclusive and evasive. That is how the government and its ministries have become. The fact that in the recent assembly session only 20 members were present and that also mainly from the opposition shows how the business of parliament has become irrelevant and unimportant. Leadership by force and pushover may seem heady and effective for the government but can never be efficient in the long run. If the prime minister has to threaten provinces and institutions to tow his line, the spectacle of rebellion and retaliation will seriously stall its own working. Why then does the government keep on shrouding many public projects in mystery? Perhaps because the price of sharing and knowing will lead to an inconvenient transparency that those who have a lot to hide can ill afford.

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Ticking time bomb

If the business of the government is the welfare of the people and it is not even bothered to manage the size of its dependents then all budget and development planning is a hoax

Every month, Pakistan produces a Singapore. Every year, Pakistan produces a Canada. Before we raise our hands in appreciation of the miracle of matching these two countries in their economic growth, wait, as what we are comparing is that every month Pakistan’s population is adding more people to its already bulging space than the total population of these two countries. And if this is not frightening then nothing will ever be. A country that cannot provide two meals daily to 60 percent of its existing population, a country that cannot ensure safe drinking water to 70 percent of its most developed cities like Lahore and Islamabad is a country that, by ticking a negative cross on the population planning box, has already ticked a time bomb exploding every now and then in the country. The exact number of people in the country is not really known even to the ministry of population and planning. Estimates range from 180 to 190 to 200 million. Just imagine the impact of this variation of tens of millions of people on all types of plans be it demographics, socio-economic estimates or political policymaking.

Pakistan is the sixth most populous nation in the world, and not only that but is also growing at some speed. The growth rate is 1.92 percent, which in effect means that by 2050, Pakistan will be a 300 million plus people country bigger than the European Union, which has 27 countries in it. The youth bulge and the infant overflow has in its existing numbers created a mockery of all types of human and social development. The economy is already unable to sustain the burden of this heavy influx of babies in the country and no amount of resource planning will be able to cover this massive mass that will keep on congesting this already burdened earth within the geography of Pakistan.

But the question is: if the headcount is a guestimate, the additional child count is almost a toss of the coin. Why are we so reluctant to know how many we are? A census in Pakistan was at one time conducted every 10 years starting from the first in 1951, the second in 1961, the third in 1972, the fourth in 1981 and the fifth, which was due in 1991, was conducted in March 1998. Thereafter it has been shoved under political apathy.

A census is deemed to be one of the most basic elements for the judicious distribution of resources, representation in parliament, electoral processes, tax collection and other civic issues including growing urbanisation and evaluation of resources for infrastructure development. That by itself may be the reason behind why this has been deemed unworthy of attention and resources. The census figures will have huge impact on seats share and revenue distribution of the provinces. Allocation of budgets, energy, gas, political voice, National Finance Commission (NFC) awards and water rights, all will change. Constituency delimitations and electoral vote planning will undergo upheavals. That is why, despite having no census in the last 18 years, the present deadline of March 2016 is also being postponed under the pretext of the army being too occupied in fighting terrorists to be spared for monitoring this exercise.

That is precisely why we have been unable to fight terrorism except in spurts. Killing a few thousand people in an army operation is great and the army needs to be commended for it but not taking care of the explosive birthrate especially in FATA and other areas where the birthrate is twice the national average means that the nursery for potential unexposed minds and deprived bodies is increasing at a much higher pace than the elimination of terrorists. With the Pakistani economy performing poorly and the rich-poor gap increasing more and more, not only will this political indifference cause more poverty and illiteracy but definitely more unrest, violence and terrorism.

Population planning and control have a direct impact on population welfare. If the business of the government is the welfare of the people and it is not even bothered to manage the size of its dependents then all budget and development planning is a hoax. Why numbers and development are related is a case study that is quoted everywhere and that is China. The resurgence of China would never have been possible if the Chinese had not realised the importance of managing family size. They gave it top priority, legislated for it, ran programmes, devised penalties for non-compliance, etc. Yes, there have been numerous studies on the negative socio-cultural aspects of such a policy in China but its benefits to lift China’s existing population out of the poverty circle and make China a superpower are indisputable.

If you think China is an extreme example, take Bangladesh, which was once part of Pakistan. It is not only growing at a much faster rate economically but has decelerated its population growth rate to a much lower level than Pakistan. Their awareness and management programmes are now being quoted as case studies for localising to the culture and achieving success. They used mosques and mullahs in villages to promote the concept of having less children by basing it on Islamic tenets of remaining within your means. All this is possible if the government thinks this subject is even worth a discussion leave aside prioritisation. The state of reluctance to do something about this is also visible in legislation banning child marriages, which is one of the main contributors to higher growth rates. The Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) and other vested interests have made this subject almost taboo. Bills are presented and never passed, and the political parties in favour of it consider it too controversial to stick their necks out beyond token presentation.

The fact of the matter is that the bomb blasts terrorising the country are fed by the population time bomb that has already ticked and exploded. While the National Action Plan (NAP) does talk about emergency measures in FATA and Balochistan, it still does not talk about population control without which all additional resource allocation will become as scarce and as insufficient in the future as it is today. Population planning is the foundation of all development. When this foundation is weak any build up of energy, education or employment will just keep on crumbling and disintegrating.

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Five rules of hushism

Believers in the hushism philosophy believe that silence is consent and all key players who can endanger their goal of supremacy should be brought into this circle of influence

Pakistan has been blamed for not being able to contribute to research and innovation. The political economy itself has suffered from a lack of groundbreaking philosophy after communism, capitalism and socialism. The way governments are run and the way governance is done has more or less followed one of the above three political mantras. However, Pakistan has come up with a new approach to political science that deserves a discussion and debate; it is called ‘hushism’. The foundation of this cutting-edge ideology of thinking and ruling is to master the ‘art of silencing’. Silence as a tool of forbearance, patience, courtesy, consent has always been accepted but silence and silencing as a tool of running countries while still not falling in the domain of authoritarianism, dictatorship and anti-democracy is what makes hushism an object of desirable discussion.

Hushism philosophy rests on some golden principles that have to be agreed upon by all parties. These principles are first discussed, agreed upon and then written down in memorandums of understanding (MOUs) to become beacons of direction and codes of impeccable conduct. These principles come under the framework of five rules that govern this philosophy:

Always seek partners with a shared purpose: For any philosophy to succeed it is very important that people who want to be part of it understand it, subscribe to it and are willing to go to any length to make it successful. The ruling parties in Pakistan fighting for democracy must get credit for coming up with this distinction. They all believe that there is a higher purpose than just public interest and if they look after the interests of each other, they will ensure public interest will have to follow their interest. With this clarity of purpose they sign up on protecting mutual interests in the form of Charters of Democracy (CoDs) or Murree Declarations. They commit to protect all people part of this charter against any attempt by the state to apprehend them on any allegation by declaring this political victimisation. The benefit of this mutuality will be that when tough times come partners will bail each other out at all cost.

Always ensure the right people for the right jobs: For hushism to succeed, strategic mapping of the right institutions that can serve their higher purpose need to be identified proactively. Main state institutions that need leadership and that share the same vision as strategic partners need to be identified. Screen out individuals who do not share this vision and can be seen as vocal opponents of the purpose. Share the vision with them, negotiate with them and sell them the advantages of hushism. Examples exist of the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB), Pakistan Television (PTV) and Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) to name a few. Once you appoint the critics to these jobs you successfully hush any untoward thoughts that they had previously about the conduct of government. They in turn hush other voices daring to go against his master’s voice.

Always focus on critical success players: Believers in the hushism philosophy believe that silence is consent and all key players who can endanger their goal of supremacy should be brought into this circle of influence. Important state institutions like the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and National Database and Regulation Authority (NADRA) are all critical for alignment to the mission. A mixture of the carrot and stick approach is used to build their capacity for interpreting, moulding and deciding on reports, cases and evidence according to the requirements of the masters. Rewards in the form of out-of-line promotions and punishment in the form of out-of-merit discharges are very effective means of ensuring zero tolerance for de-tracking from the mission.

Always invest in major investors: Politics is a big money game. In hushism the need for big money is bigger than other philosophies because the end goal is that all strategic partners end up with multiple returns on investment. To make that happen it needs investors from the business world and it needs investment in the media industry. Thus, the need to identify diversified business groups in the country, especially those that need a lot of government support in terms of not only favourable policies but favourable contracts to feed their conglomerates. Network with them, make them part of foreign delegations, develop economic and trade policies based on their advise, become behind-the-scenes business partners with them. It is a simple principle that only if it is win-win will they be willing to fund your campaigns and extracurricular activities. By creating a mutually beneficial venture you can ensure minimisation of conflict.

Always think global and act personal: Hushism is an approach that focuses on taking international forces as part of its customer satisfaction drive. Major interfering forces like the US and its agents like the IMF or World Bank have a major part to play in determining the political destiny of Pakistan. Respect this tradition, lobby early, do more to keep them happy and quiet. Become a regional ally for their invasion plans to keep them silent on your own interpretation of laws, rules and human rights.

Past experience has proven these five rules as the success principles. Whenever you break these golden rules you will be in trouble. The best example of this was the recent split between the PPP and PML-N in which they decided to speak out against each other’s alleged corruption and threatened to reveal it. The leader of the opposition lashed out against Chaudhry Nisar who, in turn, warned him against opening a can of worms. A similar scene took place last year in the joint assembly session between Chaudhry Aitzaz and Chaudhry Nisar. However, better sense prevailed as the Prime Minister (PM) and leader of the opposition hushed up the matter. In this case also sense will prevail as both parties realise that the benefits of hushism far outweigh the costs of going against them.

The recent incident of three PIA employees being shot during a protest against its privatisation is an example of how to take those who do not keep quiet to task. The PM and the minister of information have publicly told the PIA protestors that either they hush up or they will lose their jobs, if not their lives. As the majority remain just cynical onlookers of this decay, hushism flourishes. Silence breeds silence. It has been the many decades of not speaking up that has nurtured this philosophy of hushism and brought the country to this state of dis-repair. As they say, a society degenerates not just because of the violence of bad people but because of the silence of good people.

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Roots of terror

The funding of many seminaries from almost a dozen countries, including Saudi Arabia and India, is still not assessed when it comes to their usage and distribution

The biggest problem is not admitting that you have a problem. The reluctant admission by the head of the country that the National Action Plan (NAP) is not really what it should be is the first step towards damage prevention. During the one year of NAP’s implementation nearly every review has pointed out that there are serious gaps in implementation. The apex committee’s results, defence analysts and the media have been crying out loud on the “non-seriousness” of the government in taking hard action. However, the government has been in public denial of this danger, terming it as just political point scoring. The fact that it took another attack in a university where teachers and students were the victims of political apathy is the sad reflection of a mindset that believes plans would have actually been detrimental to the construction of the Taj Mahal. However, the realisation that mere talk and heavy powered apex meetings are not going to work is also an achievement of sorts.

The first step is to shift the focus from damage control to damage prevention. Anti-terrorism activities have to be preceded by counter and proactive strategies. Thus, as we do in any plan, we need to draw out a whole map of the pre-suicide jacket acceptance flow, the wearing of the jacket operation flow and beyond the blow up flow. This three-stage approach will identify critical points of sowing the seed, fertilising the seed and spreading the seed underground to intertwine with other roots. The time before the young mind becomes polluted enough to wear the suicide jacket has received minimum effort and resources. The polluters who in recent times have mostly quieted down and are a bit subtler in their preaching and outreach due to operations, are far from being eliminated or minimised. Points number three and seven in NAP, which specify banning militant wings and banned outfits with any name, have almost zero progress to show.

The very fact that India had to give us evidence about Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) operating under some other name and being involved in the Pathankot attack is clear evidence of the will of the state in this direction. Azhar Masood’s arrest has been made but we all know that after a while he may be back under some other name. When we knew that he was operating under the name of Saadi and publishing hate literature, why did we not take action? There have been some attempts in south Punjab to dismantle a few dens but concerted effort is lacking. The height of Punjab operations is the cracking down on the Chotu gang but the other big and famous alligators are all lurking just beneath the surface ready to attack whenever it is opportune.

Also, the fertiliser that feeds this seed in terms of arms and financing has not been choked and thus the spurts of attacks continue. The funding of many seminaries from almost a dozen countries, including Saudi Arabia and India, is still not assessed when it comes to their usage and distribution. The fact that the Bacha Khan terrorists were in possession of Indian and Afghan money is not just a cross-border transition but also an indication of how easily money gets transferred illegally in this country. If Ayyan Ali cannot be apprehended carrying illegal millions in one whole year then God knows how we can possibly choke money channels that are being sponsored by political parties themselves with the help of overseas sponsors.

Many areas of NAP have to do with substituting the terrorist narrative with an alternative narrative to make it difficult for terrorists to infiltrate these unexposed minds. The environment and the soil have to be changed for a different plant to grow. For this purpose, a counter-narrative committee was formed that comprised scholars and religious leaders who were to make this narrative and ensure that it gives an alternative thought process to the target population. In one year not a single meeting of this committee has been held. Similarly, the only communication strategy to get the nation activated on an alternative thought path has been done by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), which is using the media to create some support for the anti-terrorism stance.

The most fertile terrorism areas of FATA and Balochistan have a long history of being deprived and alienated, leading them to become breeding grounds for terrorist dens. These have just been treated as battlegrounds where the army goes and dismantles the dens only to find them being restored with the passage of time. No reforms, no development, no education and no engagement will lead to no change. The anger and resentment in these areas is an ideal base for terrorists to make them all rebels for a wrong cause. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the border is as secure as a national park. It has been decided that the Frontier Corps (FC), who are specialists in border manning, will be restored to this duty. Of the 25,000 required hardly 500 are present at the most dangerous point for crossing over. Of the three million Afghan refugees who were to be repatriated, only 55,000 have gone back.

The National Counter-Terrorism Authority (NACTA) is now a familiar story of failure as the 23 intelligence agencies that are operating in the country are not coordinated under the umbrella of an apex organisation that lacks funding, empowerment and credibility. The result? Four terrorists hop across the border talking non-stop on Afghan Sims to their masters and barge into a university to hold the country hostage. The rest is a sickeningly familiar story: the bravery of teachers, sacrifice of students, valour of security guards, great combat of police and army and the rehearsed grief-stricken condemnation of the politicians.

The route to the root of terror is much before the happening of the event. The fact that all steps on the flow chart of pre-attack have been treated with disdain by the government is itself the reason why after one year of a relative lull, the winds of terror have started blowing again. That is why more pressure is needed from all ends to make the government do what it is not doing, to crack down on internal supporters, to choke financing channels, to make reforms in FATA and other areas, to run a counter-terror narrative, to collate, disperse and ensure action on intelligence, to negotiate better with border countries, to use local governments to do community policing. However, if the two most important people to drive this agenda, i.e. the prime minister, who decides to extend his Davos trip to London for “personal reasons”, and the minister of interior, who decides to disappear due to “health issues”, then this ‘committed’ approach may be the biggest reason for having an amazingly inactive NAP.

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