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In the name of democracy

The interpretation of democracy is that when accountability is demanded simply dismiss it by making it legally impossible and politically improbable

When the prime minister is unwell, democracy is in danger of being derailed. Curing an illness has many remedies. In the middle of a grave personal and political crisis that has apparently impacted the prime minister’s health to the extent that he had to go overseas to get treatment, reportedly, retail therapy overtook allopathic therapy. Bentley, Savile Row and Rolex, it seems, are more effective cures for the ‘maladies’ the prime minister is ‘suffering’ from than injectable antibiotics. One could say that if he was in London and had time to kill a little bit of shopping is permissible. One could also say that shopping at a few branded stores is part and parcel in a family outing. And one could also say that all said and done the prime minister is but human. Having said that, the prime minister is also a leader; the prime minister is also under the scandal of having millions of pounds stowed away in London, the very place he was found shopping at billion-dollar brands; and the fact that the prime minister’s communiqué before leaving Pakistan had painted a health picture that did not match a robust selfie-posing touristic shopper at
the Bond Street.

These pictures may be just a minor reflection of what our leaders do with their time and our money, but it is a major reflection of why they fail to govern the country as per their commitments and manifesto. On most development fronts the country has been in a downslide. Economic, institutional and human development have all taken a beating in the last decade. Pakistan stands out as the least developed country in South Asia barring Afghanistan. Even if we consider India and China as exceptional cases, most other neighbours who were way behind Pakistan have overtaken our country on most indexes of development. The most embarrassing example for us has been that of Bangladesh. While Bangladesh was part of Pakistan it was growing at a rate of three percent, and in 2015, its growth rate has doubled to 6.5 percent. Pakistan, on the other hand, was growing at a rate of six percent in 2006, and has now come down to 4.2 percent according to the official figures, but some analysts say that figures given to the IMF place it at 3.3 percent. This is not just an economic comparison but also a comparison of governance, focus, priorities, performance and most of all of leadership.

The economic development model adopted by our finance managers led by Ishaq Dar is based on borrowing, which is a proven model of economic failure in the world. The established mantra is that it is never aid but trade that builds economies. Exports have made economies like China and India the emerging superpowers that they are today. On the other hand, we have faced declining exports in the last four years, as exports barely touched $24 billion in 2014-15. Bangladesh has surpassed us with exports of $34 billion and without being a cotton-economy has become the 11th major exporter of textiles in the world. Textile industry that was supposed to be the backbone of our economy is suffering from spinal dislocation.

Perhaps the biggest casualty of this abysmal governance is state institutions and public enterprises. From the PIA to Pakistan Steel Mills to PTV, all are in a state of disarray. They are either bankrupt or dysfunctional. On the other hand, institutions like the police, National Accountability Bureau, Election Commission of Pakistan and PEMRA have become national embarrassments. The reason is simple. They are treated as lavish dole outs for loyalists. This dole out is now considered normal. Rules of recruitment are bent; perks are amassed; performance is dismissed and subsidies are given to fill the pockets of greedy appointees, who knowing that their term may be limited, treat the position as loot sale. The annual cost to the taxpayer to keep these institutions running is Rs. 500 billion, more than the entire public sector development budget. Thus the tone set at the top by these professionally unfit people pervades right down the ranks to the point that these institutions are reduced to junk that nobody will buy except a few ‘friends’, who end up making billions out of the deals.

The third component of this style of leadership is to suppress human development. An aware, educated and healthy human mind is dangerous. Thus Pakistan, in the entire South Asia, spends the lowest on education, health, infant and maternal mortality. Pakistan is ranked 147 of 180 countries in the world on the Human Development Index, lower than China, India, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. Bangladesh has moved to the 142nd position, having reduced poverty by 10 percent last year, while poverty in Pakistan has increased by three percent, according to this index. Thus the formula is foolproof. Keep them uneducated, poor and unhealthy to the extent that they neither have the sense nor the time to question and break this vicious cycle of suppression. The recent banning of the movie Maalik is a clear example of how afraid the government is of making people aware of these injustices and how dictatorial is their behaviour under the guise of democracy.

Events that would cause uproar in parliaments, unrest in media and upheaval in the public go almost unnoticed in this country. Any other prime minister wearing a 4.6 million dollars Louis Monet watch, while 60 percent of Pakistanis cannot get a decent meal a day would be considered a hugely vulgar display of wealth. The daily expense allocated for prime minister’s secretariat and house is Rs. 2.306 million, which would be considered horrific in any developing country. The cost of protecting the prime minister’s family is Rs. 365.28 million per annum, which merely covers the expense of policing the family. Such extravagances would make Americans and British gather outside the White House and 10 Downing Street with placards, but when it comes to questioning the inhabitants of the ‘Raiwind Palace’, and daring to go anywhere near the ‘no-go’ areas of the Sharif family, it gives the yes-prime-minister ministers a chance to say how ‘indecent’ is this line of questioning.

Thus the interpretation of democracy is that an elected prime minister, no matter which electoral system he has come from, has to be preserved for five years, no matter what corruption and destruction of the institutions he commits. The interpretation of democracy is that national or provincial assembly is the best forum to delay, dodge and bulldoze bills of non-favour and bills for favour. The interpretation of democracy is that when accountability is demanded simply dismiss it by making it legally impossible and politically improbable. The interpretation of democracy is that make such an uproar about the ‘derailing of the system’ that your loyalists in the parliament and your appointed heads of key state institutions join you in this chorus of ‘save democracy’ until you acquire the status of a ‘holier-than-law’ leader. It is this very smearing of the spirit of democracy that needs to be cleared in the minds of the masses for them to make the leadership of this country truly accountable to the people of Pakistan.

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‘CHHOTU LEAKS’

The western border groups were facilitated by foreign hands and agencies, and south Punjab groups were facilitated by vote-seeking governments

While the whole world is engrossed in the Panama leaks, in Pakistan the ‘Chhotu leaks’ are finally spilling over the no-go domain. For decades terrorism in Pakistan is associated, mainly, with Waziristan and other tribal areas. While every area of the north has been dissected and debated to hunt down terrorists, terrorism originating from south Punjab has been a hush-hush topic. It has never truly caught political, media and international attention the way cross-border terrorism has. Thus the welcome breakthrough is that finally we are debating, writing and doing something about what is perhaps equally if not more dangerous in its depth and scale than many other terror hubs. While FATA has been a story of insurgency and terrorism, tales from south Punjab are much more horrific. When you know, accept and target a certain area for combat action, some progress will follow. The danger lies with the unknown evil that is protected to the extent that it becomes a Frankenstein’s monster for its own protectors. As per reports, the Chhotu gang is just the tip of the iceberg, as the real gangs entrenched in the south are far more lethal than terrorists in the north.

The stereotypical image of a terrorist is of a tall, bony, long-haired, Kalashnikov-toting man, appearing from and disappearing in mountains. The southern Punjab terrorist is disguised as a religious zealot, with a heavy beard and heavier belly, blending in as a local politician. We all lament the state of economy in FATA, but South Punjab is worse. The extent of poverty in south Punjab beats all provinces put together. Many villages in south Punjab make border areas look more civilised. The government writ is non-existent, and if you think Mullah Fazalullah taking over Swat was the ultimate lawlessness, there are some areas in Rajanpur that are completely out of the bounds of law. With some of the most notorious militant groups — Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, Jundullah, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Sunni Tehreek, Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), Sipah-e-Muhammad, Tehreek-e-Jafaria, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) etc. — residing and operating from this part of Punjab, south Punjab could be labelled the ‘terrorist capital’ of Pakistan. Punjabi Taliban and the JeM with its headquarters in Bahawalpur are evidence of one of the real sources of unending terrorism in Pakistan going unchecked. Sargodha district is a famous recruitment centre that hires militants and then sends them to Waziristan for training.

The question is why then south Punjab operators have gone untargeted, while their counterparts in the west have been the focus of attention? The major reason is that these organisations have learned from political parties in Sindh. Political parties in Sindh have militant wings to carry out their nefarious activities, and terrorist organisations in Punjab have political wings to protect their militant offensives. These groups have made their own narrative to form a vote bank in the area. While in FATA and other areas the narrative was anti-American jihad, the narrative in south Punjab has been the sectarian jihad, which resulted in many massacres of Shia and other communities. Since both south Punjab and FATA have outdone each other on poverty and illiteracy, the ability of the self-made ‘religious’ narrative to pervade brains was relatively easy.

These groups co-existed with great collaboration between south Punjab and North Waziristan. The western border groups were, according to many reports, facilitated by foreign hands and agencies, and south Punjab groups were facilitated by vote-seeking governments. There have been many reports on the ‘close’ relationship of Punjab government with the heads of the Sipah-e-Sahaba and LeJ. The former interior minister, Rehman Malik, has been quoted as saying that Malik Ishaq was paid a stipend by the Punjab government while in jail. And who can forget the welcome Rana Sanaullah gave to Malik Ishaq when he was released. Seat adjustments and mutual cooperation deals have been reported many times in the media, but there has never been anybody to really question and prove this murderous alliance. The simple entry point from Punjab to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and vice versa is from Dera Ismail Khan into Dera Ghazi Khan, making to-and-fro movement of militants unimpeded.

This coexistence was all going fine until Mr Sharif had to face Mr Sharif. The Army Public School massacre created ultra shock waves, and brought all parties together on one page with a comprehensive National Action Plan to go to all lengths to remove terrorism from Pakistan. These plans have been made in the past too, and General Pervez Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari have successfully dismissed them with ‘political acumen and sagacity’. Not so with Raheel Sharif. He has relentlessly pursued the activation of this plan despite huge resistance from the government.

Sindh operations have become a bone of contention between the MQM, PPP and the army firstly, and now between the PPP and PML-N. The PPP has been demanding a similar operation in Punjab for a long time, but the PML-N kept on denying the existence of terrorist nurseries in the area until the Lahore blast happened. The anger of the public, once again, forced Punjab government to retreat, but Punjab government still insisted that they have a trained CTD counter terrorism department that will trace, hunt, and finish terrorists. But then the Chhotu gang happened.

The Punjab government in competition with the Zarb-e-Azb operation of the army announced the Zarb-e-Ahan operation by the police and CTD. Despite the fact that in six previous operations, the Punjab police had failed to capture them, they went ahead to fight this gang. Unfortunately, many law enforcement personnel lost their lives, and 24 of them were captured by the gangsters they had gone after. Ghulam Rasool alias Chhotu’s story of being hand in glove with a local MNA, being booked on fake cases and remaining in police torture is a familiar tale of how our police has produced more hardened criminals than captured them. As in the past, when we have lost countless lives, an army operation becomes the last resort. The question is: why does the Punjab government incur huge losses of lives and image before seeking help from the Rangers or army? The answer may be that just as in Sindh where some captured target killers turned into whistle blowers there may be fear of the same happening in Punjab.

Who knows, as the Chhotu gang has surrendered to the army, the leakage will start. Capturing one gang may be not much of an achievement but the bigger achievement would be to have whistle-blowing, ‘Punjab leaks’ through them, identifying the people in government and state institutions of being facilitators of terrorism. That is why the time for a real National Action Plan to eradicate terrorism from Pakistan may be never more opportune than now.

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‘Panama Spring’

In countries where monarchies, closed governments and counterfeit democracies exist, scams on the rich and powerful fade into insignificance over a period of time

fter the Arab Spring came the ‘Panama Spring’. The Arab Spring came, shocked, whimpered and faded. The present Panama Spring is being termed as another seasonal wind that will ‘appear’ to be creating a storm but will turn into a lull before the summer takes on. The premise behind this cynicism is that both are targeted towards the rich and the powerful who may lose a few billions but will create new power fortresses to prevent any further disturbance. The excitement that was created with the Arab Spring and the romance that was conjured up by the oppressed against the mighty is not really present in this shake-up. However, as with every fairy tale, reality bites, and the Arab Spring sprung no major surprises; Panama Spring despite being the boring accountants, tedious, number-crunching leakage may yet create enough material for Hollywood to make many movies on this gigantic paper chase.

The Arab Spring was a revolt of the suppressed public against oppression, and Panama Spring is a revolt of the honest against corruption. Arab Spring started in Tunisia in 2010 when the self-immolation of a street vendor in a provincial town of Sidi Bouzid sparked mass anti-government protests. Unable to control the crowds, the then president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee the country in January 2011 after 23 years in power. Over the next few months, Ben Ali’s downfall inspired similar uprisings across the Middle East. The story of Arab Spring reached its height in Egypt when the Tahrir Square became a historical place to witness the power of the people in dislodging unwanted governments. While Hosni Mubarak succumbed to the pressure, the political structure was too weak to let the democratic government last, giving way to the army to run the country. Libya and Muammar Qaddafi went into a bloody war, despite Qaddafi’s death Libya remained a land in the grip of a civil war. Aside from these big falls, some other countries were also affected by the shake-up but that only resulted in partial public appeasement in the form of some benefits and reforms. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Qatar also faced sporadic protests but managed to control the population with carrot-and-stick options.

Panama Spring is similar yet different from the Arab Spring. It is similar in the fact that it is a revolt against the ruling elite; it is similar in the fact that public protests and pressure are the trigger points for many governments; and it is similar in the fact that the IT and social media revolution has played a big part in making it spread in many parts of the world. However, it is different in the sense that this is not a regional uprising located in the Middle East but touching nearly every part of the world. From Argentina to Iceland, from the UK to Russia, and from India to Pakistan, the tremors have been felt everywhere. Another difference is that unlike the Arab Spring that was basically a revolt against authoritarian governments suppressing the rights of citizens, this is a revolt against mostly democratic governments not taking into confidence their citizens on private business matters. The Panama leaks are not merely limited to governments but also include businessmen, bureaucrats, judges, media-persons, sportspersons, actors and many other individuals.

The Arab Spring saw the start of the role of social media in informing the world, and the Panama Spring is already showing the power of social media in transforming the world. While in Tunisia the self-immolation of a street vendor inspired a youth to sing a song on freedom that went viral and started a national movement. In Egypt when Mubarak clamped control on the electronic media, it was Wael Ghonim, Google’s marketing executive, whose post “We are all Khalid Mohammad Said” on his Facebook page about the man who was tortured to death by the government who made the uprising turn into
a revolution.

From spring of 2010 to spring of 2016 social media has overtaken media, and is now no longer an alternative but a mainstream vehicle that unlike the electronic media is the voice of the poor as it gives opportunity across classes, countries, age groups and segments to say, show and respond to millions of people within seconds. In the Arab Spring the main tool was Facebook; in the Panama Spring the ability of IT wizards to hack millions of documents and then in a click spread them all over the world through Twitter, Instagram, Snapchats etc is unprecedented. The Panama leaks would have never leaked with such speed, alacrity and scale had the social media not made the world so instant, virtual and global. The Wiki Leaks that shook the world were 1.73 gigabytes, and Panama leaks are 2,000 times bigger with 2.6 terabytes, covering 11.5 million papers. A decade ago, it would have taken warehouses and trucks to compile and transport the data in months to reach major countries. Today, it has just taken a few minutes to reach four corners of the world.

The question then is will the Panama Spring create more waves than the Arab Spring did? The answer is it has already created ripples, but will it really create tectonic shakeups remains to be seen. The ripples it has created are not just due to social media. It has happened because people being exposed in these leaks are from all parts of the world, especially the more developed world. The Iceland prime minister was the first to go as the public of Iceland is educated and knows how to hold leaders accountable. However, the more authoritarian regimes are more reluctant like China and Russia. Pakistan is a case of pretence democracy where all institutions seem to be serving and protecting the prime minister’s office rather than the public, and cries of moral authority are just laughed away. Thus, the ultimate game changer is the public awareness and pressure. Countries where the public is empowered, they exhibit the power to disempower the people in power. In countries where monarchies, closed governments and counterfeit democracies exist, scams on the rich and powerful fade into insignificance over a period of time.

The Arab Spring had a predictable fallout but the Panama Spring is diverse and unpredictable, and in this unpredictability lies the opportunity — the opportunity to create hope in despair and the opportunity to disempower
the powerful.

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A legal robbery

Panama leaks are not just document leaks, they are leaks in trust; they are leaks in transparency

When criminals are in the hiding they should not be pursued. As long as you are not caught you are innocent. Out of geographical boundaries, out of legal boundaries — that is the definition of money stowed away in grey warehouses in foreign lands. The Panama Papers have created sensation everywhere in the world. From Russia to Iceland and from India to Pakistan, there is uproar on hide-the-billions game played at the highest level. Most countries are mortified and are willing to investigate this scandal. Iceland has demanded and achieved the prime minister’s resignation, and India is promising a thorough investigation. In Pakistan, the attitude of the government and the Sharif family is typical: what is the big deal if a few billions have mysteriously found their way in other countries in some offshore and offhand accounts. The outrage at being questioned on a scandal that has rocked the world is really the root cause of why governance and rule of law is merely a matter of lip service in this country.

Having an offshore company is perfectly legal. However, offshore bank accounts and other financial dealings in another country can be used to evade regulatory oversight or tax obligations. Companies or individuals often use shell companies, initially incorporated without significant assets or operations to disguise ownership or other information about the funds involved. Shell companies and other entities can be misused by terrorists and others involved in international and financial crimes to conceal sources of funds and ownership. The ICIJ (International Consortium of Investigative Journalism) states that the files from Mossack Fonseca — the law firm involved in the Panama Papers scandal — include information on 214,488 offshore entities, linked to 14,153 clients, in 200 countries and territories. Among national leaders with offshore wealth are Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Prime Minister; Ayad Allawi, ex-interim prime minister and former vice-president of Iraq; Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine; Alaa Mubarak, son of Egypt’s former president; and the Prime Minister of Iceland, Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson.

While establishing an offshore company is not illegal the purpose for which it is used is what makes it questionable. Majority of these companies are not used for foreign investment in the countries where they are established, like Panama and British Virgin Islands (BVI), but for hiding illegal black money, and then whitening it through some means to create investments in a third country. That is why the whole world is rattled by this scandal, and busy trying to investigate its depth and extent, while in Pakistan the accused are in a denial mode. All sorts of confusion prevails. After denying for years that the prime minister owned billions of rupees of property overseas, finally, Sharif and sons have admitted that they own property in UK. Maryam Nawaz Sharif’s flat denial previously, and a partial acceptance presently is something that is nothing new. What is new is that there are documents present that are direct from the agent the family hired to authenticate the claim that they are shareholders in this deal that they keep on denying.

The real issue is if it is straight money why hide it in a crooked dark alley. Why create a route through another country. Why deny its existence. All these why’s are responsible for the present uproar in the world, and in Pakistan. For example, while Maryam has said that she was just a trustee, the documents show that she is a shareholder. According to the Panama leaks, Nescol Limited and Nielson Holdings Limited were incorporated in the BVI in 1993 and 1994, respectively, and were held by one bearer share each, in the name of Maryam Safdar (Maryam’s married name). In February 2006, Maryam Safdar signed a resolution of the Nescol Limited as the “sole (bearer) shareholder”. Mossack Fonseca was appointed as the registered agent through the Minerva Trust, which described Maryam Safdar as the beneficial owner of both companies.

Aside from the ruling family, almost 200 Pakistanis are implicated in this scandal, which includes businessmen and judges. As is the case with other countries that include the US and UK, investigations and tax law changes are already in the offing. India has already asked for investigation involving top agencies with a deadline of April 25 to find the truth. Iceland Prime minister had to resign as the public protest forced him to give up his position. The reaction of the government in Pakistan has been typically late and lame. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif addressed the nation and narrated a whole story of how every government had targeted his family business, and reduced it to nothing. How he and his family had risen from these knockdowns and became richer than before. More than the content the prime minister’s attitude was the most disturbing part of his speech; here is a scandal that has rocked the world, and here is evidence from an international consortium of 400 journalists that had investigated this scandal. Here IS a case where country after country is forced to take extraordinary steps to deal with the crisis, and here is a prime minister who with a perturbed look on his face, puts the whole blame of these global leaks on local opposing forces conspiring in the country to bring him down. This response just about sums up the extent of understanding of the situation by the man in the top position, and his ability to deal with crisis. Eventually, there was the offer of forming a judicial commission under a retired judge, and asking the opposition to bring evidence and prove the case against him.

Firstly, the prime minister has to realise that this is not a local opposition party pressing charges, and thus a judicial commission would not be presented evidence by them. What is needed is to form an independent and empowered inquisitorial committee acceptable to all parties that uses international financial audit firms, NAB, and FIA to trace the trail of money to uncover any wrongdoing in its declaration, remittance and source. Without proper and thorough investigation, it will be merely another joint investigation team working without success, or produce a commission report like that of the Model Town incident, where despite concrete evidence nobody except the most dispensable were punished.

Even if all the Sharif family is saying is true, imagine the impact of the prime minister’s family setting up an example of tax avoidance to which they have admitted. While the FBR last week preached and celebrated “pay your tax week”, how in the world are they going to convince people to pay taxes when the prime minister is professing to practising tax avoidance? Also in question are the record 42 foreign tours the prime minister has made to invite investment in the country among other things. If billions of rupees of investment is being made by his own family outside Pakistan, imagine how convincing he must be painting Pakistan as an ‘investment haven’. Panama leaks are thus not just document leaks, they are leaks in trust; they are leaks in transparency; they are leaks in accountability; they are leaks in credibility and they are leaks in integrity.

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The die option

It has been known for long that south Punjab is the sanctuary for Punjabi Taliban, and it is from here that a lot of coordination takes place for terror attacks in the country

It is do or die for us. How many times have we heard our leaders make claims that this is a sink or swim for us, that and we will do everything to end perpetrators of terror? Why do we then always end up taking the ‘die option’ and wait for a heartbreaking number of young innocent children and families to die and then take action? Why do we have to keep on thumping on empty rhetoric, express deep concern and wait for the next big explosion to happen? Why do we have to have let intelligence reports become facts to take some steps?

As the anguish pours in at all levels it makes one think of what is being done and what is not being done to let this horror become so enduring. At a national and personal level it has become a mystery, solved but un-dealt with. In the aftermath of this blast replying to many texts and emails asking for my family and my safety, I felt guilty. That I am writing that all is fine with me and my family, while doezens are dying in pain and uncertainty; that as long as the blast is away from us, and the victim-count is below the century mark it is still not as bad as the APS; that while we are trying to do whatever we can we are still not doing much. This feeling of inadequacy, this feeling of unrest and this feeling of déjà vu lingers in us to make us conscious of something we prefer to store in the subconscious under the bravado of what a resilient and brave nation we are. The question being is it resilience or indifference? Is it silence or escapism? These are the deep-rooted questions that we need to ask before we declare ourselves heroes who embrace suffering with courage.

At the national and provincial level we get statistics of how figures of terrorism have gone down dramatically. Examples of Karachi and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are quoted to give substance to the fact that we are on our way to recovery. That is encouraging; but is it enough and is it a constant trend? Not really. While bomb blasts have been reduced by 70 percent due to military operation, the APEX meetings have always expressed disappointments on progress on areas that are necessary to uproot terror: monitoring banned organisations and their emergence with other names and identities, choking terror-financing, police reforms, madrassah reforms, developing counter-narrative etc.

As far as going after banned organisations with new identities is concerned, it has been known for long that south Punjab is the sanctuary for the Punjabi Taliban, and it is from here that a lot of coordination takes place for terror attacks in the country. Muzaffargarh from which the alleged attacker of the Lahore blast hailed from is the capital of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which now operates under the name of Jamaat-ul-Ahraar, a group that has claimed responsibility for the Lahore attack. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is regarded as the most extreme Sunni terror group in Pakistan and is accused of killing hundreds of Shias after its emergence in the early 1990s. The organisation is also said to have had links with al-Qaeda. Malik Ishaq, who was a leader of the feared organisation, was implicated in dozens of cases, mostly murder. Ishaq was also accused of masterminding, from behind bars, the 2009 attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, which wounded seven players and an assistant coach, and killed eight Pakistanis. His pictures with Rana Sanaullah were a frequent item in social media. Malik Ishaq and his two sons were finally killed in July 2015 in a police encounter. Shuja Khanzada’s killing was also linked with the group’s retaliation to his death.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) track record of denials and then reluctant admission creates a very uneasy reading. Sanaullah who has denied the existence of terrorists in Punjab was quoted in an interview in 2014 for The Guardian admitting that there were 174 terrorist dens in Punjab. His relationship with Maulana Ahmad Ludhianvi, the head of the banned outfit, Sipah-e-Shabah, has been extensively reported in media where he is the chief negotiator for seat-adjustments in these constituencies. The recent pressure on the PML-N by the Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to carry out operations in Punjab has produced contradictory responses. The main difference between the army and government is whether to employ Rangers or the Elite force of the Counter Terrorism Department of the Punjab government.

This selective and as-and-when operation response enables big groups to develop smaller splinter groups and spread out to make it difficult to be apprehended. According to some sources, there are scores of terror dens that function in Rahim Yar Khan, Rajanpur and Muzaffargarh with assurance from the Punjab government that if they stay off Punjab, the government will stay off them. All this could be just an exaggeration but the current blast in Lahore and the consequent response of the army and the government has given substance to these assumptions. The operation plan was announced by the DG ISPR in a tweet after a meeting with the top army brass. Sanaullah had a separate press conference in which he denied the existence of organised terror dens and said counterterrorism forces were already eliminating terrorists. The prime minister, in a televised address to the nation, made no mention at all of the operation or the alleged RAW agent caught by the intelligence agencies. The joint press conference by the DG ISPR and Pervez Rasheed almost confirmed the unease that the government and army have vis-à-vis the Punjab operation and raising hue and cry on the RAW agent.

The APS incident raised hope that a united Pakistan would be able to nail down terrorism and these hopes have been partially fulfilled as terrorism has declined. However, the most disturbing part is the speculation that government and army have differences on operations in Punjab to make the National Action Plan more effective. This divide is what terrorists have and will exploit to take refuge in their many secure dens that exist in parts of Punjab. Without the unity that followed the APS tragedy, Lahore and many parts of Pakistan will remain vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Terrorists will keep on sneaking through the crevices that exist in government’s resolve to take on sanctuaries in no-go areas hindering the ‘do’ option in favour of the die option.

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Too sick

Pervez Musharraf's case is neither the first of its kind nor the last of its type

Guess what is more supreme than law, parliament, court, constitution? Believe it or not, it is medical leave. To be declared too sick to be treated in this country has become the ‘Great Escape’ for alleged crime-doers in Pakistan. Becoming sick for certain people is not a moment of fear and sorrow but of happiness and joy. This sickness relieves and absolves you of all obligations, all allegations and all limitations. Pervez Musharraf’s case is neither the first of its kind nor the last of its type. Politicians, criminals and absconders have used this passage again and again to abandon the people of this country in a state of disgust and of strengthened cynicism that change is impossible.

The Musharraf episode is insignificant as far as his inevitable exit is concerned but is significant as far as government’s ability to tackle its personal vendettas is concerned. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has had a history of turbulent relations with the armed forces. The reason given for this turbulence has been the coup that Musharraf did to dislodge the PML-N and the consequent treatment that made its leaders accept exile as an option. With this personal history and the opportunity to use the article six of the Constitution to nail the ex-general, it was a lethal personal and political combination that was sure to succeed. The top leaders were swearing by the pledge that if Musharraf is let go all hell would break lose, many of them would resign, and, of course, democracy will be in danger. However, none of this has actually happened as not only has he gone but seems to be living happily ever after.

Some politicians term the 1980s and 1990s as the decades of victimisation as political parties were done in by dictators who hurt Pakistan so bad that all that is not happening in Pakistan is due to that never ending hangover of the autocratic rule. However, facts show a different story. Globally, when authoritarian regimes take over true democrats take that opportunity to stand for democracy, to sacrifice and to set examples of fighting till the last breath. Examples of such combats are present all around us. The current struggle in Myanmar is a great example of this resilience. Aun Sung Suu Kai’s story of courage truly sets off the hypocrisy of our politicians. Being the daughter of a general and settled comfortably with her husband and two sons in England she returns to Myanmar in 1988 to nurse her dying mother. Moved by the appalling state of her country under the military junta she got involved in the student-led revolt against the generals. She formed her party National League for Democracy (NLG) in 1989 holding massive support rallies but was put under house arrest for endangering the state. Ms. Suu Kyi’s NLD won a landslide victory in a 1990 general election, with 392 out of 485 seats, but the junta ignored the results and imprisoned thousands in a crackdown on all opposition. She did not flee the country and continued her struggle. Her husband who stayed back in England died of prostrate cancer but she remained in Myanmar fighting for many other lives. Of her 21 years of struggle she remained under arrest for 15 years.

For our politicians Ms. Suu Kyi would be termed as mentally unstable, politically immature, a bad wife and more suitable for running social causes in NGOs. However, she has not only won a Nobel Prize but has actually made the generals bow down to democracy as per the latest elections. But to reach that stage she sacrificed her family, her comforts and risked her life for two decades, and all this time, she did not abandon her country. In contrast, most of the leaders, both autocrats and democrats, have used Pakistan as a stopover for their political ambitions, and as soon as they find hands of law reaching them they negotiate and use the ‘sick leave’ to leave Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif, the late Benazir Bhutto and Altaf Hussain are/were masters of this exit strategy. Musharraf arrested Sharif and Asif Zardari, and there were court cases against them when the Saudis came to the Sharif family’s rescue and got them out of the country. In 2000, 18 members of the Sharif family departed with Begum Kulsoom Nawaz saying that Nawaz Sharif is suffering from blood pressure and a heart condition but they would soon be back as and when his health improved.

This is also the story of the leader of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement who in 1990 fled the country when the operations were carried out by army to combat violence in Karachi. Since then he is in London, and since then we are told how dangerous it is for him to come back to Pakistan given his precarious health issues. Similarly, the late Benazir left for to London when Musharraf came into power while Zardari spent eight years in prison only to be released due to lack of evidence. He found the USA more favourable for escape. Presently too, Zardari fearing the seriousness of Rangers and National Accountability Bureau in Karachi has is ensconced to Dubai due to ‘ill health’.

After this rich history of the leaders’ pursuit for better medical facilities abroad, the Musharraf departure was predictable yet comical. The board of eminent army hospitals declared his spinal problem too acute and complex to be treated in Pakistan; there were pictures of Musharraf in hospital attire looking suitably ill; there was an air ambulance transporting the incapacitated man to the airport; and then a few hours later there was an energetic Musharraf seen in blooming health in Dubai: the land of miracle healing. The beauty of these escapades is that most of these leaders have massive investments in villas, property, palaces, businesses outside Pakistan; most of these leaders have family members with dual nationalities running the show; and most of these leaders have perfected the art of deals and dealing to such an extent that they know when all else fails the failing health succeeds.

The sad part is not that they run away from the country, but the sorrier part is that they keep on coming back as soon as their ‘medical condition’ allows. Their safe passage out of the country and their healthy return back to the country is guaranteed by internal and external stakeholders who treat this country as a pawn in a larger game, helped by illegal and corrupt regimes within. Sick charades are played to promote these games. The recent news of the MQM leader’s demise on social media and then the video showing him dancing are case in point. We may doubt the extent of their physical ailments but the sickness of no-accountability that prevails in all these leaders psychologically, emotionally and mentally is beyond doubt and definitely incurable.

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The lure of more

The similarities all over the world are that the lure of 'more and more' is one of the biggest reasons why the mighty fall from the pedestal

Asif Zardari wants to delete his infamous speech. Maria Sharapova wants to wash away the drug from her blood samples. Volkswagon wants to erase faked reports about the emission level of its cars. Memories may be short but nearly everything we say is archived and google-able. Thus it is amazing how people from the most diverse backgrounds keep on becoming the victim of the age-old human folly of greed. From politics to sports to corporate world the epidemic of getting carried away by your own infinite desire is repeatedly on display. Politics, of course, was always the best breeding ground for this seed but somehow the recent announcements in the game of tennis, cricket and football has really made one debate that does more information and education lead to a more civilised and ethical world or does it lead to more creative ways of dodging the system to get ahead?

The main problem is the definition of wrongdoing. Zardari is aghast at the ‘wrong’ treatment being meted out to Dr. Asim Hussain; Zardari is also upset over the interpretation of his famous speech about teaching a lesson to those trying to corner him and his party. Thus for Zardari, who has got away with every allegation of crime for years, this sudden tightening of the noose is totally ‘immoral’, ‘illegal’ and ‘unethical’. That is what happens when a wrong becomes a norm and right becomes wrong. Zardari is openly admitting that Dr. Asim whom he appointed as state minister and advisor was as he says: “Asim is a childhood friend and my family doctor and is an innocent rabbit afraid of his own shadow.” For him appointing his best friend on a post is not corruption; for him being allegedly involved in billions of rupees of fraud does not make a person criminal.

The other defence that Zardari and his party have is that if the PML-N has got away with all kinds of corruption, why is the PPP being targeted. Thus every time his friend or brother-in-law is held there is a statement against the military/rangers, against government or whoever dare encroaches on Zardari domain. And all this from the safe offshores of Dubai and Washington where he is waiting for these threats to work before he returns. Unfortunately, none of that has worked lately. He has, therefore, now said that his speech was meant for his political opponents and not the armed forces. With the PML-N he has started to say that he does not want them to be investigated. Clearly, the Zardari definition of good and bad is highly customised to suit the situation.

Maria Sharapova, a five-time Grand Slam champion and the world’s highest-paid female athlete, announced that she tested positive for the recently banned drug, Meldonium at the Australian Open. She admitted to taking the drug but said that she was not aware of it containing a banned substance. That itself is a denial of the truth. The very fact that she is an educated and intelligent female, the very fact that she has a team of over 30 people, including doctors, physio-therapists, coaches and lawyers, who would be constantly advising and informing her about medicines, and the fact that this medicine is not available in the USA and had to be imported from Europe makes these excuses hard to believe. To add to this sad untruth is the fact that she tried to gain sympathy by explaining how sick she has been with a family history of diabetes and thus needed this medicine. However, no amount of explanation will justify this negligence on the basis of ignorance. The problem with a qualified confession is that the qualification will always create more controversy and add more shades of grey on the qualifier.

In the corporate world one of the biggest and most respected names in the automobile industry VW Volkswagen has finally admitted to cheating the consumer by deceiving them through false emission standards. It has been dubbed the “diesel dupe”. In September, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that many VW cars being sold in America had a “defeat device,” or software, in diesel engines that could detect when they were being tested, changing the performance accordingly to improve results. The German car giant has since admitted cheating emissions tests in the U.S. The engines had computer software that could sense test scenarios by monitoring speed, engine operation, air pressure and even the position of the steering wheel. When the cars were operating under controlled laboratory conditions — which typically involves putting them on a stationary test rig — the defeat device software appears to have put the vehicle into a sort of safety mode in which the engine ran below normal power and performance. Once on the road, the engines switched out of this test mode. When they were caught they apologised and started withdrawing 11 million cars that were supposed to have been fitted with these devices.

These examples show how the pressure of obtaining maximum with minimum effort has made mockery of the richest, the dirtiest, the most respectable and the most famous. Politicians like Asif Zardari never admit to any crime due to a system both legal and judicial that creates concessions for the rich and powerful in our society. However, in more accountable societies the race for staying at the top in the industry or in the sport has made people crack all codes of ethics. For Sharapova it was knowing that she had limited time left as a top player that made her commit this blunder. For Volkswagen it was the chance to become number one automobile manufacturer that made them resort to such deception.

The similarities all over the world are that the lure of ‘more and more’ is one of the biggest reasons why the mighty fall from the pedestal. The dissimilarities are that while in the west the systems of check and balance ensure minimisation of such instances, in the developing world the absence of these systems ensures the maximisation of these instances. The likes of Zardari are the majority ruling the country, while the likes of Sharapova and Volkswagen are in minority in their respective fields. While what has happened to Sharapova and Volkswagen will definitely restraint many people and companies with similar inclinations, what has happened to Zardari will encourage many aspirants to follow the ‘role model’ in the belief that ‘might rules right’ is the way to go and grow.

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Trump: a bad sell

68 percent Americans believe that Obama has failed to take sufficient action against IS. Adding that disillusion to the fall of the automobile and the banking empire makes an ideal combination of fear, anger and frustration, becoming the fertile ground for Trump to sow his own success

Trump triumphs are intriguing all and sundry. He has become an object of ridicule, an object of study, an object of debate and thereby, an object of reluctant fascination. Perhaps, nobody really expected Trump to be anything more than a nuisance value but his front-running spree as a Republican nominee has taken many, including himself, by surprise. He represents everything that intellectuals demonize: loud money, sprawling real estate, Hollywood jet setting, trophy wives and, now, shock and awe campaigns -a profile befitting many from Pakistani politics. However, in Pakistan, we justify such profiles by blaming the uneducated choices made by the uninformed masses. The question, hence, is that despite the American democracy being, almost, 250 years old with a supposedly mature electorate; how can a candidate like Trump get away with crude arrogance?

The foremost reason is, of course, the fact that he has a story-one that sells. Trump’s slogan of “making America great again” is what is hitting the cords of what most disgruntled Americans regard as the need of the hour. The last decade has proved itself to be very sobering for Americans. The persisting recession, a high rate of unemployment, disconcerting losses in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the resurgence of Russia alongside the rise of China; all has hit the self-esteem of Americans. Trump also posits a great example of America still being a golden land of opportunity, where his immigrant parents despite coming, in rags, from Germany, were able to make their way to the top in this avenue of equality and opportunity.

Another reason why Trump has come this far is because of his interplay between his own as well as the weaknesses of the American public. He has always been rough, raucous and even outrageous; using all of these qualities to dominate the media- with statements that are negative and controversial enough to obtain air time and e-time over the social media. He stands out in comparison to Ted Cruz and Marc Rubio, who both appeared tongue-tied in response to policy statements as ridiculous as banning all Muslims or building walls on the borders. By the time, his two opponents had gathered pace and did start hitting out on him; he was, already, far ahead of them. He attacks with passion and insults, sticking to his own rationale with supreme irrationality. He poses himself as the only straight talking, hard-hitting candidate: an anti-thesis to the proper diplomatic politician.

Aside from building on his own strengths, Trump also pounces on public anger and disappointment. 68 percent Americans believe that Obama has failed to take sufficient action against IS and their terror threat. Adding that disillusion to the fall of the automobile and the banking empire makes an ideal combination of fear, anger and frustration, becoming just the right fertile ground for a dark knight like Trump to sow his own success. Hate words uttered by Trump like choker, loser, joker are first hammered in his speeches and then, in more than 6000 tweets that his campaign manages, resonating with this category of voter. Thus, he has cashed upon this political and economic catharsis that his audience wants. His irrationality strikes a chord in their irrationality. Trump is a shrewd businessman and he knows well how controversy sells. He has spent minimal money on buying ads on television, when compared to other politicians. Despite this lack of advertisement, cable news channels have still given him more air- time than any other presidential candidate. Nine of the top national networks have mentioned Trump a stunning 258,831 times, since June. That’s more than Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and John Kasich mentions put together. In fact, Trump has been mentioned more times on MSNBC alone than any other Republican candidate has been mentioned on all nine networks, cumulatively.

Cashing upon on negative sentiments has paid dividends in our part of the world too. Narinder Modi’s campaign also anchored on the hatred against Pakistan/Muslims. He was selling the same story positing his rise from a tea boy to a Prime Minister. However, he also had an economic turnaround of a province Gujrat to back him up. Similarly, in Pakistan, the rise of MQM was also based first on deprivation, and then hatred alongside fear. Altaf Hussain also represented a man on the bike raising his voice for the Urdu- speaking immigrants to make them count. Later, he became a force to be reckoned in the assembly, using all means to enforce that force. The public was held in abeyance on the basis of the lethal hate-and-fear rhetoric of the leader.

Many question yet are fascinated by the ability of the likes of Trump to create his following to get into power politics. Just like a bad product may sell for a while, but its ability to sustain its market hold can never be guaranteed. similarly, the likes of Trump, Modi and Hussain may gain huge air time and even enter the power echelons, but their ability to sustain this popularity by employing only negativity is not possible. Modi, in India, created this huge uproar of a Hindutva firebrand to get into power, and is now struggling to counter the monster on all fronts. His immediate loss in first Delhi, and, then Bihar were clear indicators of how hate strategies ultimately become self-destructive. Similarly, MQM may have managed to stay in power for 30 years, but they still have not grown beyond Karachi; failing to become a provincial power, leave aside a national party. The recent re-emergence of Mustafa Kamal is a clear indicator that hate and fear are eventually counterproductive as sustainable strategies.

The question that arises now is does Trump know his strategy will not be enough to defeat democrats? The answer is even if he knows, he does not care. At the end of the day, even if he loses, he has made himself count right to the top. He has gotten more publicity and media in these few months than in his entire 50-year career, and, mostly free of cost. When he loses, he will be remembered in political history as the corporate raider who dared to raid the capitol hill. His speaking fee will be so high that he will have to diversify his business into Trump Coaching Inc. He will write a book that will be a best seller, which Hollywood would love to buy and make into an action thriller blockbuster. At the end of the day, the Trump Brand may live richer and bigger than ever.

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Humiliation of religion

The biggest barrier in any initiative protecting the vulnerable part of society remains the oppressive orientation of opinion leaders

What happens to the perception of a religion when the head of a leading religious political party condemns the Women Protection Bill by saying: “This bill is a humiliation of husbands?” This statement itself, in my view, is a humiliation of religion. Does any religion, and especially Islam, promote violence, and that too against the vulnerable, that too against women, that too against family members, and that too against a wife who is the main architect of children and the future of the family? It is beyond any religious, human, ethical, legal, social, and philosophical imagination and justification, yet it is proudly and loudly being declared with a mocking disdain by the so-called promoters of Islam. This statement should have received widespread condemnation by Islamic scholars, analysts, politicians, and promoters of Islam. To the contrary, it has received support from many quarters. And it is not just from religious leaders but from the spokesperson of the chief minister of Punjab, who says that “a resolution for the rights of men should also be tabled and passed in the assemblies as violence against women laws would affect the domestic lives.”

The bill is on violence against women that according to every study is present in almost 70 percent of the households in the country. Domestic violence is one of the biggest reasons for unstable families and for child mental disorders. The first element is that the bill talks about violence against women and not just husbands against wives; it can be mothers-in-law against daughters-in-laws, cousins against cousins, and employers against domestic staff. Thus for our respected leaders to just take it as the protest of wife against husband shows that they have not bothered to read and understand the bill, and that there may be a case of guilty conscience there as well. Aside from the legal aspect, the social impact of the statement given by Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman that this law will help in creating henpecked husbands is what is the most disturbing implication. The mindset prevalent is that the more you suppress the woman the more macho you are, and that Islam gives you this right to do so.

This religious garb to hide personal and political agendas is why there is so much polarisation and extremism in thoughts for and against religion. For any educated and balanced Muslim, Islam is a religion based on equality and respect. The life of Prophet Mohammad (pbuh) is a living example of how he protected rights of every human being regardless of gender, sex, colour and creed. In fact, the rise of Islam itself was protection of violence against women. Before the advent of Islam female children were buried alive. It was the Prophet (pbuh) who gave the message that violence against females was unjust and unacceptable. Thereafter he led his life in a way that emphasised the status of women in the household and society. Islam forbids the concept of forceful subjugation. That is why even at the time of nikah (marraige contract), the girl is asked whether she is willing to get into the relationship.

The status of women in Islam was in many ways elevated to the highest level. The right to divorce is just a column on the nikah nama that is mostly cut out by both parents of the girl and in-laws again under the pretext of saying that it encourages breakups. If we look at the first lady Hazrat Khadija (RA), we have factual evidence of how balanced and progressive Islam was, and how it has been degraded deliberately by people who claim to be its representatives. Hazrat Khadija (RA) was the topmost businesswoman of her time; she was a widow and fifteen years older than the prophet (pbuh) when she, impressed by his character, sent him a marriage proposal. It was she who taught him intricacies of trade, and it she who was his mentor and coach in many matters of his personal struggle. Till she lived he did not remarry. Similarly his love and respect for his daughter was primarily to show how he wanted the status of women to be the most respected and precious. Contrast that to the statements issued by men in parliament and ummah, and you understand what a disservice they are causing to Islam. And they are also the reason why we find many practising Muslims in other religions and countries than within our own society.

The Women Protection Bill that was legislated into Punjab Protection of Women against Violence Act (PPWVA) itself is a good beginning but leaves a lot of room for further debate and improvement. The PPWVA provides women with legal and psychological recourse in the form of district protection committees. It also focuses on dispute resolution and family unit rehabilitation. However, the law does not directly criminalise the offence. For criminal proceedings the existing laws in Pakistan Penal Code will have to be referred to. Perhaps one of the biggest flaws in this law is that the main implementation structure — the district protection committees — are not funded by Punjab government and will be run by volunteers and donations. This is almost like abandoning responsibility. What then is the difference between an NGO and a government-run initiative? The lack of ownership, accountability, sustainability and effectiveness are going to make this law become a law only in name.

However, the biggest barrier in any initiative protecting the vulnerable part of society remains the oppressive orientation of opinion leaders. These opinion leaders exploit the ignorant minds by enforcing their own decrees and judgments that have nothing to do with religion, laws and values. These oppressors use money, religion and status to overpower masses into believing and behaving their way. Why they succeed is because there is a huge gap of education in general and religious education in particular. Religion is reduced to an Arabic-cramming process. Whatever way these religious leaders interpret the Arabic language is completely their prerogative. People with real and true research into religion are very few and thus are outnumbered by the unbalanced opinion leaders. In the more developed countries religious bigots do exist but the counter viewpoints balance their existence. The lack of education in lesser developed countries puts a greater responsibility on people like us no matter how few we are to stop this religious degradation by raising voice for the true face and spirit of Islam.

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Ego boomerang

All parties are constantly taking refuge in being the saviours of democracy and condemning the army and Rangers' interference as non-democratic. On the other hand, their open threats to institutions are anything but democratic

What goes around comes around. This law of nature is quoted frequently but followed infrequently. The tendency of human nature to selectively use these laws is the first proof of how interpretation of most such clichés are conveniently reserved for others and how for most leaders power, position and resources are synonymous with being beyond reproach. The recent hysteria by the government is almost a carbon copy of the outraged response of the PPP a few months ago. In fact, it is a predictable chain reaction where loud claims of sanctity of institutions and law enforcers are vociferously demanded, requested and then pushed back as soon as their demands are directed towards the ones who demanded. It started with the MQM and their constant SOS for army interference and operations in Karachi. Finally, when the Rangers began the operations and hundreds of MQM people were arrested it turned into a tirade of warnings and threats by their leadership to lay off them. All this while the PPP supported the Rangers’ operation and commended the visible difference in the law and order situation. The MQM’ s main line of defence was that since the PPP was not being targeted it was a discriminatory operation.

The PPP, on the other hand, did not find the operation either discriminatory or the Rangers going beyond their jurisdiction till the Dr Asim saga unfolded. Then, as Altaf Hussain had threatened the army, Asif Zardari came out in full force. He screamed and hurled threats at the Rangers and army, and warned them of dire consequences. Regardless of this outrage, the near and dear ones of Mr Zardari were targeted for abusing their offices to create an easy environment for terrorists. As a result, Mr Zardari flew out to Dubai and is now following Altaf Hussain’s footsteps to decree judgment on Pakistani politics from long distance. Ironically, the MQM that was so upset with the Rangers for targeting them now has become a supporter for extending the authority of Rangers. The PPP in turn is now howling about how Punjab has not come under the noose of these operations and why it is being targeted.

Finally, the ball enters Punjab’s court as the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) tries to dig up the buried hatchet on the decades’ old cases against the main leaders of the PML-N. Thus, it is the PML-N’s turn to balk. However, it has a twofold problem. Unlike the MQM and PPP, it cannot claim that it is being targeted and discriminated against as other parties are also undergoing this treatment, and, secondly, it cannot scream murder at the armed forces as its relationship with them is already under scrutiny. What are they left with except to beat down NAB and try to scare the daylights out of it by warning it not to take on the very people who appointed them to this job? That is what their style of government is and that is why governance is almost non-existent. Outrage expressed by each leader, be it Altaf Hussain, Asif Zardari or Nawaz Sharif, at being questioned on any wrongdoing of theirs or their workers or near ones is an example of how set their minds are on their ultimate power to decide for themselves and others.

The sad casualty of this attitude is the dubious perception about democracy in the country. All parties are constantly taking refuge in being the saviours of democracy and condemning the army and Rangers’ interference as non-democratic. On the other hand, their open threats to institutions are anything but democratic. More evidence to their autocratic attitude is in the current Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT) survey about democratic norms in the political parties. It is not a coincidence that the least democratic parties are the PMLN, PPP and MQM. The PML-N is the lowest in the rank with a 31 percent score and the PPP is hardly better at 36 percent. It is but natural that if these parties do not practice democracy within their ranks how can they be expected to practice democracy within the country?

The recent uproar about NAB’s undue interference in the working of the government is intriguing to say the least. The Prime Minister (PM), the Chief Minister (CM), the information minister and the home minister all have come out with severe warnings to NAB. This tirade is very similar to the tirade by the MQM and PPP against the army but for the PPP focus is on NAB. However, it is evident that their own chosen man, NAB’s head, has dared to go against their wishes because perhaps there is a more powerful force asking them to do their job, which they had not done in the last few years. The PM led this threat attack by warning “I have brought the matter to the notice of the NAB chairman a couple of times. He should take notice. Otherwise, the government will take legal action in this regard.” As the Orange Train Project has come under scrutiny, the CM Punjab also issued a warning to NAB: “The government desires effective accountability procedure, however, it will not allow any department to influence projects having national importance.”

The egos of the high and mighty are going through a boomerang cycle. With this autocratic mindset it is difficult for them to accept disobedience. Their tested tried formula of threatening or buying subservience is not too effective at the present juncture. The PPP tried threatening the army and the general into warding off Dr Asim’s case but that did not work. In recent times, Asif Zardari has become all praise for the same general and has supported an extension of his term. Similarly, the PML-N first tried to offer the same lure to the general who firmly refuted the rumour by dismissing this option. It was only after the failure of offering posts to ward off opposition that the PML-N had no option but to go full throttle after NAB.

When ego trips are based on power and position any lessening of these two creates high insecurities and desperation. However, too many egos create an ego war where everyone gets hit and hurt. The present fall-out between the PPP and PML-N may prove mutually damaging and that is why, if they need to survive, they will have to start ‘acting’ like the saviours of democracy against anti-democratic forces. However, their present dilemma is that if the general is not even interested in an extension whom to make the anti-democratic villain? That is why the present daggers drawn situation between the two parties has reached a temporary impasse. Whether this remains a permanent or temporary state depends on how all encompassing and non-discriminatory the present drive of accountability turns out to be.

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The price of not knowing

Even when documents are presented to NAB or the court they mysteriously disappear from record and the likes of Mr Asif Ali Zardari are honourably exempted of all charges

Make it so technical and complex that even those few who know cannot know. That is the essence of creating non-transparent transparency. Mega projects are being signed with many countries involving mega money and questions are being raised on price, process and management. The answers are so technically opaque that neither parliament nor the public are able to either accept them or reject them. More confusion ensues, the media finds it too chaotic to continue with these discussions and shifts its focus to the next breaking news. The curious cases of the LNG deal with Qatar, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) routes, the orange train line with China and the metro bus with Turkey are examples of how, despite all the controversies, nothing concrete has come out of them in terms of knowing where all the money has come from and where it is going.

Gas shortage has plagued the country as badly in winter as load shedding does in the summers. Pakistan definitely needs solutions for this as the public and industry have suffered badly. Taxes like gas infrastructure development cess have been imposed on industry with crippling effect on its competitiveness. In these circumstances, the LNG deal with Qatar may be a solution to better the supply of gas at lower prices. The problem, however, is that ‘may be’ is just as good as giving the benefit of the doubt to Donald Trump for coming up with a sensible punch line. There is hue and cry by the opposition that all these deals are bypassing parliament and even when they are brought into debate the response of the relevant ministries is not satisfactory. The opposition on the other hand does not have concrete evidence to really make a solid case of it, which can penetrate through a judicial system that is extremely reluctant to take tough decisions in these contentious matters.

The perception of corruption in projects is easily understood when the deal is accompanied by obvious payoffs to the beneficiaries. Cotecna and SGS cases during the PPP regime became famous when a clear percentage six to 10 percent were supposed to be deposited in Swiss accounts belonging to Asif Zardari. However, as there are many ways to skin the cat there are many ways to skin bribes and payoffs. Bending and overlooking Pubic Procurement and Regulatory Authority (PPRA) rules of procurement is one of the main ways of awarding contracts to people you want to award contracts to. In the Nandipur project case, competitive bidding was not done and the project was awarded to a company that had been blacklisted due to its earlier failures. The other big source of corruption is the awarding of equipment and services’ contracts. As these services are technical in nature, tenders are deliberately made with specifications only the favourites can comply with, delivery dates are tailored to suit only certain suppliers and bid prices are shared with those whom they want to qualify as the lowest bidders. This is systemic and technical corruption that is very difficult to understand, catch and prove. In all audits conducted at Nandipur it was proven that the wrong plant size was ordered, the wrong fuel was used and the wrong man was appointed as the head of this project. However, all this is put under the heading of incompetence and is forgiven and forgotten.

The mega LNG deal has so many layers of operation that it will be very difficult to wade through this maze of buying, transporting and distributing gas to identify multiple avenues of payoffs. However, even in this present status, experts have rejected the government’s claims. First of all, the minister for petroleum and natural resources has claimed that at six dollars MMBTU (one million British thermal units) it is the cheapest in the world. It is not. Gas prices, as is the case in oil, have tumbled in the last few years. Russsia is selling it in Eurorpe for $ 3.3 and in the US it is sold at two dollars. At this price electricity will cost six ripees per unit. But the biggest hide-and-not-tell that the minister is doing is revealing that it is a pay-as-you-take 15-year bound agreement. This means that when the oil price will be $ 100 per barrel, which it will be in a few years, we will be bound to buy at $ 15 per MMBTU and the cost of an electricity unit will be as high as Rs 22. Why we did not buy it from Iran at three dollars is also an enigma. Also, how do you prove that Saifur Rehman was there in Qatar as a friend of Nawaz Sharif and was not the deal broker just as Mr Jindal of India is around the prime minister whenever there is a meeting between the Indian and Pakistani counterparts? However, the inexplicable appearances of these close friends during such important governmental business have always been exposed in the media, questioned by experts but concrete traceable evidence has never come forward. Even when documents are presented to the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) or the court they mysteriously disappear from record and the likes of Mr Asif Ali Zardari are honourably exempted of all charges.

Not revealing may help in letting people grope about in the dark but creates other problems that are reflected in the shape of more protests, more conflicts, more mismanagement and more blood on hands. PIA privatisation and the recent flare up between the PPP and PML-N in Azad Kashmir are frightening manifestations of this frustration ready to explode. The CPEC has not even started and bitterness has reached high levels. While the prime minister has said the original route is intact the Chinese ambassador in his meeting with the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa said that he was not aware of the existence of a western route. Let us hope this is just ignorance on his part rather than actual reality.

The best way to create controversy is to be non-inclusive and evasive. That is how the government and its ministries have become. The fact that in the recent assembly session only 20 members were present and that also mainly from the opposition shows how the business of parliament has become irrelevant and unimportant. Leadership by force and pushover may seem heady and effective for the government but can never be efficient in the long run. If the prime minister has to threaten provinces and institutions to tow his line, the spectacle of rebellion and retaliation will seriously stall its own working. Why then does the government keep on shrouding many public projects in mystery? Perhaps because the price of sharing and knowing will lead to an inconvenient transparency that those who have a lot to hide can ill afford.

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Ticking time bomb

If the business of the government is the welfare of the people and it is not even bothered to manage the size of its dependents then all budget and development planning is a hoax

Every month, Pakistan produces a Singapore. Every year, Pakistan produces a Canada. Before we raise our hands in appreciation of the miracle of matching these two countries in their economic growth, wait, as what we are comparing is that every month Pakistan’s population is adding more people to its already bulging space than the total population of these two countries. And if this is not frightening then nothing will ever be. A country that cannot provide two meals daily to 60 percent of its existing population, a country that cannot ensure safe drinking water to 70 percent of its most developed cities like Lahore and Islamabad is a country that, by ticking a negative cross on the population planning box, has already ticked a time bomb exploding every now and then in the country. The exact number of people in the country is not really known even to the ministry of population and planning. Estimates range from 180 to 190 to 200 million. Just imagine the impact of this variation of tens of millions of people on all types of plans be it demographics, socio-economic estimates or political policymaking.

Pakistan is the sixth most populous nation in the world, and not only that but is also growing at some speed. The growth rate is 1.92 percent, which in effect means that by 2050, Pakistan will be a 300 million plus people country bigger than the European Union, which has 27 countries in it. The youth bulge and the infant overflow has in its existing numbers created a mockery of all types of human and social development. The economy is already unable to sustain the burden of this heavy influx of babies in the country and no amount of resource planning will be able to cover this massive mass that will keep on congesting this already burdened earth within the geography of Pakistan.

But the question is: if the headcount is a guestimate, the additional child count is almost a toss of the coin. Why are we so reluctant to know how many we are? A census in Pakistan was at one time conducted every 10 years starting from the first in 1951, the second in 1961, the third in 1972, the fourth in 1981 and the fifth, which was due in 1991, was conducted in March 1998. Thereafter it has been shoved under political apathy.

A census is deemed to be one of the most basic elements for the judicious distribution of resources, representation in parliament, electoral processes, tax collection and other civic issues including growing urbanisation and evaluation of resources for infrastructure development. That by itself may be the reason behind why this has been deemed unworthy of attention and resources. The census figures will have huge impact on seats share and revenue distribution of the provinces. Allocation of budgets, energy, gas, political voice, National Finance Commission (NFC) awards and water rights, all will change. Constituency delimitations and electoral vote planning will undergo upheavals. That is why, despite having no census in the last 18 years, the present deadline of March 2016 is also being postponed under the pretext of the army being too occupied in fighting terrorists to be spared for monitoring this exercise.

That is precisely why we have been unable to fight terrorism except in spurts. Killing a few thousand people in an army operation is great and the army needs to be commended for it but not taking care of the explosive birthrate especially in FATA and other areas where the birthrate is twice the national average means that the nursery for potential unexposed minds and deprived bodies is increasing at a much higher pace than the elimination of terrorists. With the Pakistani economy performing poorly and the rich-poor gap increasing more and more, not only will this political indifference cause more poverty and illiteracy but definitely more unrest, violence and terrorism.

Population planning and control have a direct impact on population welfare. If the business of the government is the welfare of the people and it is not even bothered to manage the size of its dependents then all budget and development planning is a hoax. Why numbers and development are related is a case study that is quoted everywhere and that is China. The resurgence of China would never have been possible if the Chinese had not realised the importance of managing family size. They gave it top priority, legislated for it, ran programmes, devised penalties for non-compliance, etc. Yes, there have been numerous studies on the negative socio-cultural aspects of such a policy in China but its benefits to lift China’s existing population out of the poverty circle and make China a superpower are indisputable.

If you think China is an extreme example, take Bangladesh, which was once part of Pakistan. It is not only growing at a much faster rate economically but has decelerated its population growth rate to a much lower level than Pakistan. Their awareness and management programmes are now being quoted as case studies for localising to the culture and achieving success. They used mosques and mullahs in villages to promote the concept of having less children by basing it on Islamic tenets of remaining within your means. All this is possible if the government thinks this subject is even worth a discussion leave aside prioritisation. The state of reluctance to do something about this is also visible in legislation banning child marriages, which is one of the main contributors to higher growth rates. The Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) and other vested interests have made this subject almost taboo. Bills are presented and never passed, and the political parties in favour of it consider it too controversial to stick their necks out beyond token presentation.

The fact of the matter is that the bomb blasts terrorising the country are fed by the population time bomb that has already ticked and exploded. While the National Action Plan (NAP) does talk about emergency measures in FATA and Balochistan, it still does not talk about population control without which all additional resource allocation will become as scarce and as insufficient in the future as it is today. Population planning is the foundation of all development. When this foundation is weak any build up of energy, education or employment will just keep on crumbling and disintegrating.

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Five rules of hushism

Believers in the hushism philosophy believe that silence is consent and all key players who can endanger their goal of supremacy should be brought into this circle of influence

Pakistan has been blamed for not being able to contribute to research and innovation. The political economy itself has suffered from a lack of groundbreaking philosophy after communism, capitalism and socialism. The way governments are run and the way governance is done has more or less followed one of the above three political mantras. However, Pakistan has come up with a new approach to political science that deserves a discussion and debate; it is called ‘hushism’. The foundation of this cutting-edge ideology of thinking and ruling is to master the ‘art of silencing’. Silence as a tool of forbearance, patience, courtesy, consent has always been accepted but silence and silencing as a tool of running countries while still not falling in the domain of authoritarianism, dictatorship and anti-democracy is what makes hushism an object of desirable discussion.

Hushism philosophy rests on some golden principles that have to be agreed upon by all parties. These principles are first discussed, agreed upon and then written down in memorandums of understanding (MOUs) to become beacons of direction and codes of impeccable conduct. These principles come under the framework of five rules that govern this philosophy:

Always seek partners with a shared purpose: For any philosophy to succeed it is very important that people who want to be part of it understand it, subscribe to it and are willing to go to any length to make it successful. The ruling parties in Pakistan fighting for democracy must get credit for coming up with this distinction. They all believe that there is a higher purpose than just public interest and if they look after the interests of each other, they will ensure public interest will have to follow their interest. With this clarity of purpose they sign up on protecting mutual interests in the form of Charters of Democracy (CoDs) or Murree Declarations. They commit to protect all people part of this charter against any attempt by the state to apprehend them on any allegation by declaring this political victimisation. The benefit of this mutuality will be that when tough times come partners will bail each other out at all cost.

Always ensure the right people for the right jobs: For hushism to succeed, strategic mapping of the right institutions that can serve their higher purpose need to be identified proactively. Main state institutions that need leadership and that share the same vision as strategic partners need to be identified. Screen out individuals who do not share this vision and can be seen as vocal opponents of the purpose. Share the vision with them, negotiate with them and sell them the advantages of hushism. Examples exist of the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB), Pakistan Television (PTV) and Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) to name a few. Once you appoint the critics to these jobs you successfully hush any untoward thoughts that they had previously about the conduct of government. They in turn hush other voices daring to go against his master’s voice.

Always focus on critical success players: Believers in the hushism philosophy believe that silence is consent and all key players who can endanger their goal of supremacy should be brought into this circle of influence. Important state institutions like the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and National Database and Regulation Authority (NADRA) are all critical for alignment to the mission. A mixture of the carrot and stick approach is used to build their capacity for interpreting, moulding and deciding on reports, cases and evidence according to the requirements of the masters. Rewards in the form of out-of-line promotions and punishment in the form of out-of-merit discharges are very effective means of ensuring zero tolerance for de-tracking from the mission.

Always invest in major investors: Politics is a big money game. In hushism the need for big money is bigger than other philosophies because the end goal is that all strategic partners end up with multiple returns on investment. To make that happen it needs investors from the business world and it needs investment in the media industry. Thus, the need to identify diversified business groups in the country, especially those that need a lot of government support in terms of not only favourable policies but favourable contracts to feed their conglomerates. Network with them, make them part of foreign delegations, develop economic and trade policies based on their advise, become behind-the-scenes business partners with them. It is a simple principle that only if it is win-win will they be willing to fund your campaigns and extracurricular activities. By creating a mutually beneficial venture you can ensure minimisation of conflict.

Always think global and act personal: Hushism is an approach that focuses on taking international forces as part of its customer satisfaction drive. Major interfering forces like the US and its agents like the IMF or World Bank have a major part to play in determining the political destiny of Pakistan. Respect this tradition, lobby early, do more to keep them happy and quiet. Become a regional ally for their invasion plans to keep them silent on your own interpretation of laws, rules and human rights.

Past experience has proven these five rules as the success principles. Whenever you break these golden rules you will be in trouble. The best example of this was the recent split between the PPP and PML-N in which they decided to speak out against each other’s alleged corruption and threatened to reveal it. The leader of the opposition lashed out against Chaudhry Nisar who, in turn, warned him against opening a can of worms. A similar scene took place last year in the joint assembly session between Chaudhry Aitzaz and Chaudhry Nisar. However, better sense prevailed as the Prime Minister (PM) and leader of the opposition hushed up the matter. In this case also sense will prevail as both parties realise that the benefits of hushism far outweigh the costs of going against them.

The recent incident of three PIA employees being shot during a protest against its privatisation is an example of how to take those who do not keep quiet to task. The PM and the minister of information have publicly told the PIA protestors that either they hush up or they will lose their jobs, if not their lives. As the majority remain just cynical onlookers of this decay, hushism flourishes. Silence breeds silence. It has been the many decades of not speaking up that has nurtured this philosophy of hushism and brought the country to this state of dis-repair. As they say, a society degenerates not just because of the violence of bad people but because of the silence of good people.

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Roots of terror

The funding of many seminaries from almost a dozen countries, including Saudi Arabia and India, is still not assessed when it comes to their usage and distribution

The biggest problem is not admitting that you have a problem. The reluctant admission by the head of the country that the National Action Plan (NAP) is not really what it should be is the first step towards damage prevention. During the one year of NAP’s implementation nearly every review has pointed out that there are serious gaps in implementation. The apex committee’s results, defence analysts and the media have been crying out loud on the “non-seriousness” of the government in taking hard action. However, the government has been in public denial of this danger, terming it as just political point scoring. The fact that it took another attack in a university where teachers and students were the victims of political apathy is the sad reflection of a mindset that believes plans would have actually been detrimental to the construction of the Taj Mahal. However, the realisation that mere talk and heavy powered apex meetings are not going to work is also an achievement of sorts.

The first step is to shift the focus from damage control to damage prevention. Anti-terrorism activities have to be preceded by counter and proactive strategies. Thus, as we do in any plan, we need to draw out a whole map of the pre-suicide jacket acceptance flow, the wearing of the jacket operation flow and beyond the blow up flow. This three-stage approach will identify critical points of sowing the seed, fertilising the seed and spreading the seed underground to intertwine with other roots. The time before the young mind becomes polluted enough to wear the suicide jacket has received minimum effort and resources. The polluters who in recent times have mostly quieted down and are a bit subtler in their preaching and outreach due to operations, are far from being eliminated or minimised. Points number three and seven in NAP, which specify banning militant wings and banned outfits with any name, have almost zero progress to show.

The very fact that India had to give us evidence about Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) operating under some other name and being involved in the Pathankot attack is clear evidence of the will of the state in this direction. Azhar Masood’s arrest has been made but we all know that after a while he may be back under some other name. When we knew that he was operating under the name of Saadi and publishing hate literature, why did we not take action? There have been some attempts in south Punjab to dismantle a few dens but concerted effort is lacking. The height of Punjab operations is the cracking down on the Chotu gang but the other big and famous alligators are all lurking just beneath the surface ready to attack whenever it is opportune.

Also, the fertiliser that feeds this seed in terms of arms and financing has not been choked and thus the spurts of attacks continue. The funding of many seminaries from almost a dozen countries, including Saudi Arabia and India, is still not assessed when it comes to their usage and distribution. The fact that the Bacha Khan terrorists were in possession of Indian and Afghan money is not just a cross-border transition but also an indication of how easily money gets transferred illegally in this country. If Ayyan Ali cannot be apprehended carrying illegal millions in one whole year then God knows how we can possibly choke money channels that are being sponsored by political parties themselves with the help of overseas sponsors.

Many areas of NAP have to do with substituting the terrorist narrative with an alternative narrative to make it difficult for terrorists to infiltrate these unexposed minds. The environment and the soil have to be changed for a different plant to grow. For this purpose, a counter-narrative committee was formed that comprised scholars and religious leaders who were to make this narrative and ensure that it gives an alternative thought process to the target population. In one year not a single meeting of this committee has been held. Similarly, the only communication strategy to get the nation activated on an alternative thought path has been done by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), which is using the media to create some support for the anti-terrorism stance.

The most fertile terrorism areas of FATA and Balochistan have a long history of being deprived and alienated, leading them to become breeding grounds for terrorist dens. These have just been treated as battlegrounds where the army goes and dismantles the dens only to find them being restored with the passage of time. No reforms, no development, no education and no engagement will lead to no change. The anger and resentment in these areas is an ideal base for terrorists to make them all rebels for a wrong cause. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the border is as secure as a national park. It has been decided that the Frontier Corps (FC), who are specialists in border manning, will be restored to this duty. Of the 25,000 required hardly 500 are present at the most dangerous point for crossing over. Of the three million Afghan refugees who were to be repatriated, only 55,000 have gone back.

The National Counter-Terrorism Authority (NACTA) is now a familiar story of failure as the 23 intelligence agencies that are operating in the country are not coordinated under the umbrella of an apex organisation that lacks funding, empowerment and credibility. The result? Four terrorists hop across the border talking non-stop on Afghan Sims to their masters and barge into a university to hold the country hostage. The rest is a sickeningly familiar story: the bravery of teachers, sacrifice of students, valour of security guards, great combat of police and army and the rehearsed grief-stricken condemnation of the politicians.

The route to the root of terror is much before the happening of the event. The fact that all steps on the flow chart of pre-attack have been treated with disdain by the government is itself the reason why after one year of a relative lull, the winds of terror have started blowing again. That is why more pressure is needed from all ends to make the government do what it is not doing, to crack down on internal supporters, to choke financing channels, to make reforms in FATA and other areas, to run a counter-terror narrative, to collate, disperse and ensure action on intelligence, to negotiate better with border countries, to use local governments to do community policing. However, if the two most important people to drive this agenda, i.e. the prime minister, who decides to extend his Davos trip to London for “personal reasons”, and the minister of interior, who decides to disappear due to “health issues”, then this ‘committed’ approach may be the biggest reason for having an amazingly inactive NAP.

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