Stunted development

Successive governments have failed to broaden the tax net despite the fact that less than a million people pay taxes in Pakistan. That is the root cause for all deficits

Almost 62 percent of children in Pakistan suffer from stunted growth, according to the National Nutrition Survey, of whom 40 percent are stunted and 22 percent severely stunted. Malnutrition in early years is the major cause of this stalled growth. In many ways this is similar to the stunted development the country is going through for the last decade. This realisation becomes starker when we analyse the latest World Bank report and find that in the world’s fastest growing region, South Asia (growing on the average at six percent), Pakistan’s growth has stunted to just over four percent. This is below not only India and Sri Lanka but also Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Maldives, all growing between five to seven percent plus. We are presently just above Afghanistan but the projected growth for the next year predicts Afghanistan overtaking Pakistan.

Comparisons with India have historically been rejected on the basis that all major industries were deliberately given to the Indians at the time of partition and that Britain deliberately created the Line of Control (LoC) issue to keep us unsettled. But the most shocking part of this analysis is that Bangladesh, which was East Pakistan till 1971, had inherited the same problems as West Pakistan but has overtaken us with a growth rate of 6.2 percent. This was a region that was considered as not being blessed with natural and infrastructural resources like West Pakistan and was languishing in growth compared to its western wing. For Bangladesh to move ahead of Pakistan shows how the problem lies within and not externally as many times attributed by conspiracy theorists.

Ironically, this low growth rate has persisted despite some favourable external factors. The major expense bill component is the import of oil and during the year oil prices nose-dived 55 percent. Despite floods there was a better harvest of cotton, wheat and rice crop. However, the macro economic variables hardly changed. The fact that Bangladesh, as part of Pakistan, was going down and now under different leadership is going up, is evidence of mismanagement and absence of governance that have been a feature of our governments in the last decade or so. Pakistan’s growth rate averaged between five to seven percent between 2002 and 2007, and even in 2008 it was 5.6 percent. Thereafter, it has averaged between three to four percent.

What is the reason for this constant downward spiral while the whole region is galloping ahead at the fastest rate in the world? Two of the main areas that stand out in this comparison are economic management and human development. On the economic management level we suffer from high fiscal deficits, budget deficitsand trade deficits that make us a nation constantly living beyond its means. These deficits stem from the simple factor of not having enough revenues to pay for expenditures. Pakistan’s budget deficit has been recorded at Rs 651.8 billion during the first half (July-December) of the ongoing financial year, which, according to the finance minister, may turn out to be higher than the agreed 4.9 percent to the IMF. Similarly, despite a significantly large growth in remittances, the country’s current account deficit widened by $ 95 million in January, reaching $ 2.307 billion in the first seven months (July-January) of this fiscal year. The reason? Low exports and high imports.

When a country continues to spend more than it earns, deficit is filled by either further borrowing or cutting back expenditures. Unfortunately, in both cases, our economic managers have taken the easier but counterproductive route. Borrowing domestically is done from commercial banks, thus squeezing room for lending to the private sector, which is really the engine for growth. Combine this with the addiction to IMF borrowing and the classic growth decelerator trap becomes self-evident where new loans are taken to pay off earlier loans. The other option is to cut expenditures and, unfortunately, the axe falls on the development budget that has already been shaved off by 15 percent to pay off debt and expenses.

The reason given for this anti-development fiscal management by the finance minister is not having any other recourse for revenue. Tax collection every year falls short of its targets and so will it this year as well. If you keep on taxing the same people, revenues will decline. Successive governments have failed to broaden the tax net despite the fact that less than a million people pay taxes in Pakistan. That is the root cause for all deficits and the huge tax burden on poor people. The data available of 3.5 million people in the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) on who can be brought into the tax net has never been taken seriously as that would mean taxing the rich and those people that cannot be touched as they are connected to the various lobbies of government loyalists. Even if 30 percent of the people from this data are brought into the tax net it will make a substantial decrease in the deficit.

The other reason behind why the country’s growth has retarded is due to the fact that the human developed is under nourished. UNESCO’s latest report on education for all reveals that investment in education in Pakistan in the last 15 years has actually decreased, making Pakistan comparable to Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso. Also, the latest trends in Pakistan’s statistics on education show that out of school children have increased from 2.5 million to 2.9 million, making every fourth child out of school in the world a Pakistani child.

This reversal of development has affected every sector of development and has permeated in every part of our social interaction. The World Bank report talks about the lack of energy hitting industrial development. With very little institutional reforms and investment in these key areas this virus of underperformance has become endemic in sports as well. From being world champions in hockey and squash, Pakistan barely qualifies for big tournaments; from being a cricketing force, Pakistan today has been thrashed by Bangladesh to nose-dive into being eighth in ranking.

The type of structural changes needed to set the country on the right path requires unbending and across-the-board commitment to reforms. When 70 percent of our parliamentarians evade or misreport taxes it is very difficult for them to broaden the tax net and punish non-taxpayers, when most institutional appointments are made on an exchange of favour basis, the PIA, Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) and so many other institutions will become national embarrassments, and when development decisions are based on kickbacks and ostentatious projection it makes the country vulnerable to internal and external exploitation. As for stunted physical growth the only long-term solution is focused nutritional intake. For stunted economic growth the only long-term solution is a focused pressure on government accountability for economic and human development.

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Balochistan: a far cry

It is not just lack of governance but complete absence of governance that has made the province look worse than sub-Saharan countries

The least talked about province in the country got maximum talk time in the last few days, unfortunately for all the wrong reasons. First, it was the cancellation of the seminar in the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) on ‘unsilencing Balochistan’ and then the attack in Turbat killing 20 labourers. The fact that only bad news is newsworthy from the largest and potentially richest province in the country speaks volumes on how this province has been neglected politically, economically and socially. Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa seem to dominate political discourse in the Assembly, on media and in public opinion forums. Balochistan is a prime case of how land resources, mineral resources and natural resources are all multiplied by zero when human resource development is multiplied by zero. Even during British rule more focus was on infrastructure development in the form of railroad networks than focusing on the geopolitical issues of a province located in a sensitive regional plateau. Every year we hear of more discoveries of gold, gas, oil, copper and coal in billions of tonnes, and every year we find the province spiralling down in search of peace and prosperity.

The province has become an enigma for successive governments that have failed to deal with tribal conflicts, insurgency, terrorism and lack of development. Balochistan has been facing insurgencies since independence. Insurgency is described as a rebellion of non-state actors against state actors, normally through periodic guerilla war tactics. The first insurgency started in 1948 by Prince Karim based on his own interpretation of what independence meant. There was another insurgency 10 years later but the severest of them all took place in 1973 when army action was called in to combat it and which reportedly cost over 10,000 lives and created huge resentment against the government and its operations. This rebellion was followed by the killing of Nawab Bugti in 2006.

This history of conflict between nationalists and state institutions has now assumed a new proportion. While the earlier fight was for autonomy, the later fights were for independence. This is the result of years of mishandling of the province on all fronts to the extent that the feeling of being wronged has given way to the feeling of being deprived and have been pent up to the level where an average Baloch feels grossly exploited. These feelings have been capitalised internally and externally by all actors who see the province as an absolute goldmine that can be tapped for personal and political motives. In the last three years, 800 dead bodies have reportedly been found and the question of missing persons can be raised occasionally but not answered. Add to this the Taliban and other terrorist attacks on ethnic and sectarian grounds, allegedly aided and funded by many countries, and the predicament of Balochistan becomes visible but not solvable.

Why is it not solvable? Is it not solvable because we do not know what the issues are and who is responsible for those issues. Is it not solvable because the people of Balochistan have made up their minds to resist all state policies. The answer to the above questions is a capital no. The number of studies done on Balochistan and the number of committees made by governments to solve these issues are numerous. However, it is the political failure of each government to implement the solutions to these issues that has bred more and more disillusionment about being part of a federation that has largely treated this province as a problem child that needs spanking for its bad behaviour while depriving it of the very resources and opportunities that it produces.

It is not just lack of governance but complete absence of governance that has made the province look worse than sub-Saharan countries that are at the bottom of all rankings in development. With the slowest GDP growth rate amongst all provinces and high unemployment, the literacy rate is 41 percent with health indicators frighteningly off mark. The maternal mortality rate is 785/100,000, which means every 10 minutes a mother dies in Balochistan due to delivery issues. This is criminally shocking. The literacy rate amongst females is barely19 percent and almost 1.8 million children are out of school. This lethal combination of illiteracy and poverty in most cases will breed deprivation leading to all sorts of explosive reactions. This deprivation gets more and more pronounced as they grow up knowing that their own resources, like gas and minerals, are being used massively and cheaply by the rest of the country while they are stranded in this complexity of bare survival.

If military governments acted as spoilers, democratic governments have acted as exploiters. When the PPP government took over in 2008, like all governments they also gave packaged solutions. There was this nicely packaged Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan package introduced in 2009 and based on recommendations of the committee headed by Wasim Sajjad and Mashahidullah Syed. However, despite some really great proposals in this package, very little progress on them has taken place to date. One of the main reasons was the then Balochistan Chief Minister (CM) Nawab Raisani’s preoccupation with Islamabad. With the 18th Amendment and the National Finance Commission (NFC) award, the provinces were supposed to get more autonomy and share but, again, if amendments and packages were the change catalysts, Balochistan would now be a case study of transformation. In true ‘nawabi’ style the package’s concessions were doled out to personal favourites. That is why the great proposal of providing employment to almost tens of thousands of Baloch youth became victim to the political hiring of all PPP loyalists rather than those who truly deserved this quota.

That is why, when the government changed and Dr Abdul Malik was selected as the CM, hopes resurged. He was a nationalist, a man well respected for his struggle and his character. However, the more things change the more they remain the same. Being a coalition partner of the government he was supposed to get a better deal from them politically and financially. Somehow, that has not happened. The latest killings of 20 labourers in his hometown is a sad reminder that just having a clean record yourself is not enough to clean the record of others. For a province mired in so many complex and intricate issues it requires a leadership of tenacious will and pugnacious skill to fight and overcome cultural, foreign and political forces that keep on driving down the potential of this province.

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Murder, it is

Their car number plates, with "MPA" written all over them, make them screech their tyres, break every signal and mock any attempt of discipline at home, on the streets and in any public interaction

With power comes license to kill. This is the norm that has become strong enough to override state laws, constitutional articles and human rights. That is why a young, happy-go-lucky teenager with life unfolding all possibilities in front of him becomes the victim of a drunk, arrogant trigger-happy son and brother of a member of parliament. That is why a widow loses the only son she has on whom her whole life’s hopes centre. That is why the frustration and rage of injustice in society manifests itself in taking the law into one’s own hands consistently. This used to be stuff doled out in soap operas but has now become so normal that it is a reality greater than fiction. Children born in households of gun wielding guards following them to schools and colleges cossetted in dark windows of bullet proof cars grow up with this certainty that these guns make them punishment proof against the most heinous crimes. The latest in this rich-arrogant-killer-brats ‘serial’ is the tragic death of 15-year-old Zain Rauf, who tragically happened to be in the madness range of Mustafa Kanju.

Mustafa portrays all that has gone wrong with this society. Born into unlimited wealth that has come too easily, too quickly and too wrongly, these children grow up in households where parents gloat over their titles and their ability to subjugate every rule and law for money and power. Servants are slaves and people with less money mere chattels. Their car number plates, with “MPA” written all over them, make them screech their tyres, break every signal and mock any attempt of discipline at home, on the streets and in any public interaction. Any questioning of their behaviour and conduct is just dismissed by flaunting their who’s who connections. Any incidence of disobedience by any office trying to do its duty is penalised and silenced brutally. The only marginal fear they have is of public pressure through media portrayal. The recent incidents that have seen some form of persecution have been in response to media uproar followed by social media viral forums. However, this attention span has its own limitations as the breaking news syndrome eventually makes these bits of news too old to be new enough to be sustained more than a few days or weeks.

Take the last two incidents of this catch-me-if-you-can game of rich young gangsters. The most highlighted murder was that of Shahzeb Khan by Shahrukh Jatoi. The whole incident started with a servant in a nearby apartment teasing his sister and Shahzeb admonishing him loudly. His master, ‘Nawab’ Siraj Talpur, did not like it and a fight broke out, which was pacified by Shahzeb’s father who himself was a police officer. However, junior Nawab sahib was not happy and he, along with another ‘Nawab’ Shahrukh Jatoi and their four guards shot Shahzeb cold bloodedly and escaped. It was the huge civil society and social media campaign that forced the Supreme Court (SC) to take suo motu action and, finally, they were brought to the anti-terrorism court and given life/death sentences. However, the victory signs of a confident Shahrukh Jatoi in prison embodied how helpless the law and court can be in front of money and power. The story of how Shahzeb’s family has forgiven these criminals and filed for their release is hard to believe. Some say they were paid diyat (blood money) of Rs 200 million, which has been denied by the family. However, who knows whether it may be the fear of something similar happening to other members of the family that has prompted this pardoning of the tragic death of Shahzeb, who was the only son of his parents and the only brother of his sisters.

The tale of the young, moneyed heirs to powerful people also includes the murder of young Malik Tahir, who dared cross the motorcade of Abdul Qadir Gilani, son of former Prime Minister (PM), Yousaf Raza Gilani. His guards, trying to protect the precious life of his precious son, took away the cheap life of a boy whose existence can never matter as much as of those born into houses of powerful parents. The media uproar made the case focus on this issue for a few days and what happened to these criminals is hardly a matter of any serious reflection presently. Added to this portfolio of the rich and spoilt is the bold and the beautiful. The current scandal going on of the model Ayyan caught with half a million dollars in money laundering is another case study of how even the brother of a senator can ensure that jail itself becomes more like a five star hotel.

As caught, confirmed and convicted criminals get away with murder, upright and honest people get caught and punished for upholding principles. Nekokara’s dismissal from service for refusing to use force on innocent people symbolises why the belief system in this society is that only idiots stick to principles and those who break laws are mature and smart. The Model Town massacre after almost a year of all types of investigations seems futile as such reports are common where the hapless public is pitched against heartless politicians. It is this consistent free for all crime history that can make a fascist political party, whose own party workers are whistle blowing on its conduct, insist that it will be the whistle blowers who will be blown away.

When crime pays, it flourishes. When gun trotters become symbols of success, values die. When gangsters smile and wave signs of victory, innocence becomes stupidity. The media and public promised not to let the Army Public School (APS) incident fade away to ensure government action. However, with time, the National Action Plan seems to be heading in the same direction as the seventh five-year plan, i.e. residing in the junk items. When state institutions become party or passive to political atrocities only a consistent social uprising can create enough pressure to provide some checks and balance in a country where social justice is almost extinct. When the majority is failing and falling due to social imbalances, it is time for the individual to stand and do all that can be done in their capacity. If a few individuals can stand up against an MNA and a senator and remove them from a plane to change the VIP culture, so can individuals against the VIP sons and their hazardous security to safeguard the security of the sons and families of the people of this country

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Wanted: a foreign policy

In the absence of a foreign policy, every single country that Pakistan has had to interact with in the recent past has been able to use the country to its own advantage

Does a foreign policy mean foreign tours? Does a foreign policy mean foreign affairs? Does a foreign policy mean foreign delegations? These are perhaps the most visible parts of Pakistan’s foreign policy components but are also the most trivial parts of any foreign policy. Foreign policy is a major part of a government’s performance, exhibiting its ideology and approach to international relations. It can vary from peaceful co-existence to exploitation. Pakistan’s inability to position itself with a clear stance regionally and globally has contributed in a significant way to the problems we face today politically, financially and socially. The lack of vision to develop a competitive advantage based on its geographical position and its demographical prominence has made it a caddy boy in the political power golf being played by the big boys around.

A foreign policy, by definition, is the planned effort of a country to develop international relations with other countries to serve its self-interest. The policy document has to have a vision and guiding principles of how a nation sees itself in the world order and what ground rules it will obey in matters of international relations and conduct. The guiding principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy as stated by the Quaid-e-Azam are protection of independence and sovereignty, cordial relations with Muslim countries, promotion of world peace, implementation of the UN Charter, nonalignment, support of self determination, opposition to discrimination and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. These are very clear guidelines and need to be translated into policy direction for Pakistan’s relations with countries in South Asia, the west and the rest of the world. Under these regions we need country-specific policies not only covering areas of conflict and military cooperation but economic and trade cooperation, social and cultural relations. These then can be translated into specific objectives given to the foreign office and foreign missions to follow and implement. Even in the absence of this planning, by just glancing at the governing principles, we see how successive governments have been violating them at the cost of national interest. The principle of an independent and sovereign Pakistan has been violated by allowing the US to operate in the country, the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries has been violated by supporting the US in Afghanistan and the support we are planning to provide for the Saudi-Yemen conflict is dangerously tilting in the same direction.

In the absence of a foreign policy, every single country that Pakistan has had to interact with in the recent past has been able to use the country to its own advantage. In the neighbourhood, our cross-border clashes with India have been in strange contrast to our nebulous political response on their diplomatic and media aggression. Our relationship with Afghanistan has been based on distrust and conflict. With Iran it is always a dictated relationship under duress by the US and the Saudis. Even the cordial relations we enjoy with a few countries are subservient to personal interests rather than national interests. Friendship with China is more on mega projects and mega deals rather than on lobbying to develop counter-power structures to India and the US. Friendship with Saudi Arabia can be better described by bonded labour contracts where money gifted in times of need is expected to be paid back in fighting other people’s wars. For terms of engagement with the US, if ever there was a lose-win deal made in diplomatic terms, from Ziaul Haq to the present era, it has been as inept and as one-sided as you can ever imagine a deal to be.

The present confusion of ‘to be or not to be’ part of the Saudi-Yemen conflict is a consistent example of how the indecisiveness and lack of transparency in declaring our true posture has made the country vulnerable to local and international exploitation. As a country, we have suffered enough in the past due to foreign intervention in our affairs and the cost of getting embroiled in an international conflict at a time when we are unable to manage conflicts at home is total insanity. The Saudi-Yemen conflict is not new and neither is the US’s interest in propelling the Saudis to tame the growing influence of Iran in the Middle East. Almost constantly since its foundation in 1932, Saudi Arabia has been involved in Yemen politically and sometimes militarily, often with negative consequences for Yemen. The border dispute between the two countries has been interspersed with US interests in the region due to al Qaeda’s war in the region. US intervention in Yemen has been identical to Pakistan where their massive drone attacks have been allowed in return for military and logistical support to the Yemen government to fight the US war on terror with many reports of collateral damage in the form of innocent human lives. Underlying all these battles is the fact that Pakistan has faced the failure of successive governments to lift the country out of poverty due to leaders whose corruption make them easy targets for outsiders to exploit. Poverty has and always will fertilise the seeds of rebellion. The Houthi movement has gained momentum due to the failure of the Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi government. This rising rebellion has been exploited by Iran and it is this fear of growing Iranian power over the region that Saudis have overreacted to with air strikes on Yemen.

Iran has had very structured foreign posturing in a region going through uprising and discontent. It has positioned itself as anti-US, anti-Israeli and pro-Palestine with support from Hezbollah and Hamas, capitalising on the resentment in the Arab world against authoritarian monarchies’ suppression. Added to that is the sectarian clash of Saudi Wahabiism and Iranian Shiaism, which has played a part in this battle that has seen Syria, Egypt and many other countries being caught in this regional power conflict.

In the absence of a clear-cut policy and an empowered ministry, or for that matter even a minister, foreign policy in Pakistan has become a matter of the whims and fancies of ministers, advisors and diplomats. While the prime minister issues statements of providing safe passage back to Pakistanis stranded in Yemen, the Pakistani ambassador in Yemen, Dr Irfan Shami, and his staff were the first to return on the special flight back to Pakistan while almost 2,000 Pakistanis are still waiting for some help to come back to the country. Meanwhile, the minister of defence and the advisor on foreign affairs went on a tour to meet their Saudi counterparts for a briefing on the conflict with Yemen. On their return things have started to look as they normally do in every major crisis situation: vague, indecisive, non-transparent and, to put it crudely, fishy. The prime minister meanwhile decides that Turkey is the place to go for all and sundry. Leaders must understand that foreign policy is a matter more significant than foreign tours though the prime minister has broken all records by being on these tours 21 times in 18 months, declining foreign investment and diminishing political influence, all evidence of these just being purposeless travels. As they say, if you do not know where you want to go, any road will lead you there.

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